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Step 5: Creating the narratives In the next stage, the participants use the starting points (Step 4) to create coherent and plausible narratives or stories. Participants can be divided into several groups of 4-6 people with a facilitator for each group. Each group receives a different set of starting points. Various questions can be asked to get the group started: • What happens if … insert scenario starting point (e.g., the price of Brazil nuts falls and transport to the community gets worse)? Then what? • What happens next? • What will be the consequence of that? • How will people react if that happens? • What will they do next? • Who will push for what kind of change? These questions can be continued to deepen the story. It can be useful to use time lines to help build the scenarios – people can be asked to think about what happens at each point in time. This can help them write a story. Each group should develop at least two scenarios - this will stimulate their thinking about different outcomes or impacts. The facilitator should also point out any inconsistencies and ask the participants to reconcile them. It is important that the story includes the entire cast of characters as well as other identified driving forces. If the group loses focus, the facilitator needs to bring the discussion back on track. A good way of breaking a roadblock is to get the breakout groups to come up with outlines for a set of three to four stories in 45 minutes or less. This process can be repeated a few times, with full group discussions in between, to deepen the stories. Once the group has reached the logical end of a story, someone from the group should read it to the rest of the group which should review and correct it. Finally it is essential to have a note taker (not the facilitator) recording the discussions as the scenarios are developed. Main Sources and Further Guidance Evans, K., Velarde, S.J., Prieto, R.P., Rao, S.N., Sertzen, S., Davila, K., Cronkleton, P. and de Jong, W. 2006. Field guide to the future: four ways for communities to think ahead. CIFOR, ASB, ICRAF, Nairobi. http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/Evans-et-al-2006-Field-guide-to-the-future.pdf Wollenberg, E., Edmunds, D., Buck, L. 2000. Anticipating change: scenarios as a tool for adaptive forest management: a guide. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia. http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/acm/methods/fs.html Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 79
Maack, J.N. 2001. Scenario analysis: a tool for task managers. From social analysis: Selected tools and techniques. Social Development Papers Number 36. The World Bank, Washington DC.http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTSOCIALDEV/Resources/31773941167940794463/Sce narioAnalysisMaack.pdf Peterson, G.D., Beard Jr., T.D., Beisner, B.E., Bennett, E.M., Carpenter, S.R., Cumming, G.S., Dent, C.L., and Havlicek, T.D. 2003. Assessing future ecosystem services: a case study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin. Conservation Ecology 7(3) Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 80
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MANUAL FOR SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
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Table of Contents T1 Introduction t
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List of Boxes Box T1. General Data
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Forest Trends’ mission is to main
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List of Acronyms (Core Guidance and
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Sections T5 and T6 present a range
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Figure T1: The Main Stages and Step
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Figure T2: Example of a Conceptual
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Figure T4: Generic Conceptual Model
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Stages 3-5 of Open Standards The re
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Figure T7: Diagram of the ROtI Anal
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table so they can be read, discusse
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Table T1: Theory of Change for Seyc
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T2.4 Participatory Impact Pathways
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Table T4: The PIPA Outcomes Logic M
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Main Sources and Further Guidance h
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T3 Sustainability Framework Approac
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Figure T12: SAPA Initiative Modifie
Page 37 and 38: 1. Identify a small group of key in
Page 39 and 40: Table T6: Example of LOAM Livelihoo
Page 41 and 42: T4 Matching Methods T4.1 Introducti
Page 43 and 44: Advantages and Disadvantages of ‘
Page 45 and 46: Box T1. General Data Collection and
Page 47 and 48: Box T3. Data Collection Methods Pro
Page 49 and 50: T6 Specific Data Collection Methods
Page 51 and 52: Table T8: Example of a Household BN
Page 53 and 54: The poverty index can range from 0%
Page 55 and 56: The PIA guide proposes the followin
Page 57 and 58: day. The ‘before project’ score
Page 59 and 60: Figure T15: “Before and After”
Page 61 and 62: Table T10: Pair-Wise Ranking Showin
Page 63 and 64: Impact calendars Impact calendars c
Page 65 and 66: A large sample is needed to be conf
Page 67 and 68: Table T15: Scoring of Changes in Ag
Page 69 and 70: Table T17: QPA Scoring of Social Eq
Page 71 and 72: T6.4 Participatory Economic Valuati
Page 73 and 74: Advantages and Disadvantages of Par
Page 75 and 76: The stories are collected from thos
Page 77 and 78: Main Sources and Further Guidance D
Page 79 and 80: Table T19: Stakeholder Analysis Pro
Page 81 and 82: Figure T18. Venn Diagram with Stake
Page 83 and 84: T7.2 Problem Trees Assuming it is p
Page 85 and 86: T7.3 Scenario Analysis Scenarios ar
Page 87: Box T7. Driving Forces in a Communi
Page 91 and 92: In terms of non-monetary benefits,
Page 93 and 94: and duration of employment, the sta
Page 95 and 96: Physical Capital Positive changes i
Page 97 and 98: these strategic resource off-limits
Page 99 and 100: einforce existing institutions or n
Page 101 and 102: PROJECT: PROFAFOR TYPE: Plantations
Page 103 and 104: their occurrence will depend in lar
Page 105 and 106: HUMAN CAPITAL Increase in perceptio
Page 107 and 108: Table T26: Potential Mid- to Long-T
Page 109 and 110: Figure T20: Example of Relationship
Page 111 and 112: Figure T22: Additional Potential So
Page 113 and 114: T9 Further Guidance on Indicator Se
Page 115 and 116: Box T9. Goals and Indicators Defini
Page 117 and 118: When selecting indicators, it is be
Page 119 and 120: Table T27: Indicator Quality Assess
Page 121 and 122: Box T10. Indicators Derived from th
Page 123 and 124: T9.5 Disaggregating Indicators Mult
Page 125 and 126: Mayoux, L. 2001. What Do We Want to
Page 127 and 128: Landscape Outcomes Assessment Metho
Page 129 and 130: • Access to essential services (w
Page 131 and 132: T10.3 Social Indicators Derived fro
Page 133 and 134: Empowerment of women indicators:
Page 135 and 136: CCBA, 2008. Climate, Community & Bi
Page 137 and 138: James A., Pangtey V., Singh P. & Vi
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SEEP Network. 2006. Social Performa
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