East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy

100
Exhibit 68
level. Inland flooding has been a significant threat to areas such as the Mahakam delta and the
capital city of Samarinda, which have substantial populations.
COASTAL FLOODING
East Kalimantan has 194,000 ha of land that is vulnerable to coastal flooding. While sea
levels are estimated to rise by 20 cm by 2030, the threat is heightened as factors such as storms and
the El Nino Southern Oscillation can amplify waves and the amount of land at risk of inundation. Given
these factors, land that is less than 1 meter above sea level (ASL) is typically considered vulnerable.
East Kalimantan has 194,000 ha that 1 meter or less ASL. Although this represents just 1 percent
of the province’s land, four districts have disproportionally greater areas at risk: Tana Tidung (10.2
percent of its area is vulnerable), Samarinda (4.2 percent, although this land is more vulnerable
to inland rather than coastal flooding), Bontang (3.8 percent), and Tarakan (3.6 percent). These
estimates likely underestimate the threat to East Kalimantan’s coasts, though, as elevations are
measured by satellite 23 which can not penetrate East Kalimantan’s dense forests. An estimate of land
that is 20 meter ASL or less, while certainly an overestimate, would compensate for low elevations
covered in forest and gives an upper bound of over 2 million of vulnerable lands.
1% of East Kalimantan’s land is vulnerable to coastal flooding
DRAFT
SOURCE: Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), team analysis
Penajam Paser Utara 8,459
Kutai Timur 6,941
Samarinda 3,033
Tarakan
Balikpapan
Bontang
Malinau
Area less than 1 m ASL
Ha
Kutai Kertanegara 41,902
Tana Tidung 34,148
Bulungan 28,818
Nunukan 24,540
Berau 16,176
Paser 14,918
Kutai Barat 12,865
901
885
613
14
East Kalimantan 194,213
As percent
of total area
1.6
10.2
2.2
1.7
0.7
1.4
0.4
2.7
0.2
4.2
3.6
1.7
3.8
0.0
1.0
Coastal flooding will have a disproportionally large economic impact on East
Kalimantan. Although the area that is vulnerable to coastal flooding is relatively small, it contains
some of the province’s largest assets. East Kalimantan’s single international airport, Seppingan
airport in Balikpapan, is on the coast and less than 1 meter ASL; Tarakan’s airport is similarly
vulnerable. The multi-billion dollar LNG plant in Bontang, the single greatest capital investment in
the province, is at risk. Similarly, the Pertamina refinery on the coast in Balikpapan is on vulnerable
land. These two assets generated more than 27 percent of all of East Kalimantan’s GDP in 2008.
23 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)