East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy
East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy
East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy
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98<br />
Exhibit 65<br />
Exhibit 66<br />
IPCC GCMs predict 0.3-0.6 °C temperature increase and<br />
-4.6-4.0 mm rainfall change per month in 2030<br />
2030 vs. 2010 forecast<br />
B1<br />
A1B<br />
A2<br />
Emission scenario description<br />
Global environmentally sustainable world<br />
▪ Change toward a service and information economy<br />
▪ Population will reach 9 bn in 2050 and then decline<br />
▪ Reduction in material intensity and introduction<br />
of clean and resource-efficient technologies<br />
▪ Global solutions to economic, social, and<br />
environmental stability<br />
Global, rapid economic growth world relying on all<br />
energy sources<br />
▪ Rapid economic growth<br />
▪ Population will reach 9 bn in 2050 and then decline<br />
▪ Quick spread of new and efficient technologies<br />
▪ World income and way of life will converge between<br />
regions<br />
▪ Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide<br />
▪ Balanced emphasis on all energy sources<br />
Regionally oriented economic development world<br />
▪ A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations<br />
▪ Continuously increasing population<br />
▪ Regionally oriented economic development<br />
▪ Slower and more fragmented technological changes<br />
and improvements to per capita income<br />
GCM = general circulation model<br />
SOURCE: IPCC AR4; expert interview; team analysis<br />
Forecast for <strong>East</strong> <strong>Kalimantan</strong> (2030 vs. 2010)<br />
Temperature change Avg. month rainfall change<br />
°C<br />
mm, <strong>Kalimantan</strong><br />
0.3 0.4 0.5<br />
-3.7 0.6 3.2<br />
0.4 0.4<br />
0.3 0.4 0.5<br />
-4.6 0.8<br />
DRAFT<br />
0.6<br />
-3.7<br />
Minimum Maximum<br />
Mean<br />
0 ° C 0.5 ° C 1.0 ° C -5 mm 0 5 mm<br />
Sea levels are predicted to rise by 20 cm by 2030 and 1.0 m by 2100<br />
IPCC AR4 : future evolution of global mean<br />
sea level 1<br />
Sea level rise might exceed IPCC projections<br />
▪ Recent analysis shows that the sea levels are<br />
currently tracking at the upper limit of the IPCC<br />
projections<br />
▪ Recent research results 3 project a sea-level rise of<br />
between 0.5 and 1.4 m above the 1990 level by<br />
2100, substantially beyond the upper range<br />
projected by the IPCC<br />
IPCC AR4: observation of sea level rise<br />
0.6<br />
New studies show 20 th century sea level rise rate<br />
was higher than IPCC estimates indicate<br />
▪ Most satellite data and tide gauge data indicate that<br />
average sea-level rise is now running at over 3mm<br />
per year<br />
▪ A global rate of sea-level rise of 3.36+/-0.41 mm/year<br />
was observed for the period 1993-2007 2<br />
▪ The rate of sea-level rise in the 20th century is<br />
probably the highest for the past 5,000 years<br />
4.0<br />
3.2<br />
SOURCE:: 1. SRES A1B Scenario, 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) 3. Rahmstorf, 2007<br />
2. Beckley et al, 2007<br />
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