East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy

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98 Exhibit 65 Exhibit 66 IPCC GCMs predict 0.3-0.6 °C temperature increase and -4.6-4.0 mm rainfall change per month in 2030 2030 vs. 2010 forecast B1 A1B A2 Emission scenario description Global environmentally sustainable world ▪ Change toward a service and information economy ▪ Population will reach 9 bn in 2050 and then decline ▪ Reduction in material intensity and introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies ▪ Global solutions to economic, social, and environmental stability Global, rapid economic growth world relying on all energy sources ▪ Rapid economic growth ▪ Population will reach 9 bn in 2050 and then decline ▪ Quick spread of new and efficient technologies ▪ World income and way of life will converge between regions ▪ Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide ▪ Balanced emphasis on all energy sources Regionally oriented economic development world ▪ A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations ▪ Continuously increasing population ▪ Regionally oriented economic development ▪ Slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income GCM = general circulation model SOURCE: IPCC AR4; expert interview; team analysis Forecast for East Kalimantan (2030 vs. 2010) Temperature change Avg. month rainfall change °C mm, Kalimantan 0.3 0.4 0.5 -3.7 0.6 3.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 -4.6 0.8 DRAFT 0.6 -3.7 Minimum Maximum Mean 0 ° C 0.5 ° C 1.0 ° C -5 mm 0 5 mm Sea levels are predicted to rise by 20 cm by 2030 and 1.0 m by 2100 IPCC AR4 : future evolution of global mean sea level 1 Sea level rise might exceed IPCC projections ▪ Recent analysis shows that the sea levels are currently tracking at the upper limit of the IPCC projections ▪ Recent research results 3 project a sea-level rise of between 0.5 and 1.4 m above the 1990 level by 2100, substantially beyond the upper range projected by the IPCC IPCC AR4: observation of sea level rise 0.6 New studies show 20 th century sea level rise rate was higher than IPCC estimates indicate ▪ Most satellite data and tide gauge data indicate that average sea-level rise is now running at over 3mm per year ▪ A global rate of sea-level rise of 3.36+/-0.41 mm/year was observed for the period 1993-2007 2 ▪ The rate of sea-level rise in the 20th century is probably the highest for the past 5,000 years 4.0 3.2 SOURCE:: 1. SRES A1B Scenario, 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) 3. Rahmstorf, 2007 2. Beckley et al, 2007 69
99 predict increased precipitation for the region. There is also a weaker link between climate change and droughts although there is a link to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (which in turn is linked to the low rainfall and dramatic spread of man-made fires in 1997 and 1998 in East Kalimantan). Agricultural yields could be significantly affected. Whereas many plant species are adapted to seasonal temperature variations, tropical species typically have a much lower tolerance for changes in temperature. The World Bank predicts that by 2050 Indonesia could see a 10 percent decrease in major crop yields due to temperature and rainfall changes. Finally, vector-borne diseases can increase, as dengue- and malaria-carrying mosquitoes expand their habitats with rising temperatures. East Kalimantan currently has a low incidence of malaria; its future moderate temperature increase compared to global averages and mountainous interior (higher altitudes with lower temperatures) could serve to moderate any expansion of the habitat of vector-borne diseases. East Kalimantan has extensive coral reefs, 86 percent of which are considered at risk. 22 Indonesia’s longest continuous barrier reef system, the Sunda Barrier Reef, some 630 kilometers long, lies on the edge of the Sunda Shelf. It is largely unexplored despite its size and potential economic, social, and biological importance. East Kalimantan’s coral reefs are impacted by climate change in three ways. Coral bleaching occurs during abnormally high temperatures in the ocean and kills coral if they last more than two weeks. Coral drowning occurs when coral cannot grow fast enough to keep up with rising sea levels. Oceanic acidification occurs as more CO2 is dissolved in the ocean and disturbs coral growth. However, the threats of coastal flooding and inland flooding could pose a moderate risk to the province overall and potentially substantial localized risk to specific districts. East Kalimantan has 1,185 km of coastline, 368 small islands, and several coastal cities, such as Tarakan, Bontang, and Balikpapan. While East Kalimantan is relatively protected from event-driven (or storm-driven) coastal flooding, it is susceptible to coastal flooding from gradual rises in sea East Kalimantan climate risk landscape: Current climate risks already pose a moderate threat to people and assets Moderate risk East Kalimantan is prone to event-driven natural hazards … Coastal flooding and sea-level rise ▪ East Kalimantan has a long coastline with major population centers ▪ Susceptible to sea level rise ▪ Strong relationship to climate change Storms ▪ East Kalimantan is away from major tropical cyclone tracks, due to close proximity to the Equator (storms typically originate > 10 o ) DRAFT Inland flooding ▪ El Niño Southern Oscillation and rainfall are strong drivers ▪ Flooding in Samarinda ▪ Moderate link with climate change Malinau Region Nunukan Region Berau Region Kutai Timur Region Drought ▪ Low historical incidence outside; but increased fires of 1997-98 linked to El Nino ▪ Linked to ENSO, but weak climate change link Tarakan Bulungan Region … and also faces hazards from gradual climate change shifts Malaria and vectorborne diseases ▪ Increasing temperature and rainfall are largely accepted as factors that increase malaria infection rates Agriculture yield change ▪ Agriculture is 5% of GDP but important in rural areas ▪ World Bank predicts yields could be negatively impacted by 10% in Indonesia due to climate change Exhibit 67 Landslides ▪ East Kalimantan has low incidence of landslides compared to Java or Sumatra ▪ Linked to rainfall intensity and land use Kutai Barat Region Bontang Samarinda Kutai Kartanegara Region Balikpapan Penajam PU Region Pasir Region Damage to coral reefs ▪ Source of livelihood (fisheries, tourism, etc.) and natural barrier of protection ▪ Coral is killed by bleaching, drowning, and acidification, linked to climate SOURCE: EM-DAT;East Kalimantan in Statistics BPS; press clippings; interviews; academic literature 22 Based on Indonesia’s overall average as estimated by Reefs at Risks.
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East Kalimantan Environmentally Sus
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3 East Kalimantan Environmentally S
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5 Contents Preface 7 Acknowledgemen
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7 Preface A broad global consensus
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9 Acknowledgements The DNPI and the
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11 Executive summary East Kalimanta
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13 1. The development of coal-bed m
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DRAFT 15
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17 Kaltim Green Program The Governm
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19 1. The context for East Kalimant
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21 This resource development pathwa
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23 Both Berau and Malinau are large
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25 In the BAU scenario, CO 2 e emis
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27 TOP 5 ABATEMENT INITIATIVES Top
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29 Kalimantan’s shift to a climat
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31 The sector’s 57 MtCO2e of net
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33 Outside of the sector’s need f
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35 The greatest expansion is expect
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37 improving water management in on
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39 Including financial transfers fo
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41 after the identified abatement m
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43 The Case of Oil Palm Permits and
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45 Emissions from the forestry sect
Page 47 and 48: 47 across Kalimantan in 1997 and 19
Page 49 and 50: 49 Utilizing concession buyout sche
Page 51 and 52: 51 Pilot Projects Pilot projects ha
Page 53 and 54: 53 GDP Potential The economic decli
Page 55 and 56: 55 Downstream manufacturing would i
Page 57 and 58: 57 downstream manufacturing as it w
Page 59 and 60: 59 Swidden agricultural practiced b
Page 61 and 62: 61 Although East Kalimantan has far
Page 63 and 64: 63 Reaching average national yields
Page 65 and 66: 65 farmers . We have identified sev
Page 67 and 68: 67 Many mining operations are locat
Page 69 and 70: 69 Unlike timber or oil palm planta
Page 71 and 72: 71 exploration and production conce
Page 73 and 74: 73 The Economic Opportunity of Post
Page 75 and 76: 75 Entering downstream value chain
Page 77 and 78: 77 Current Context The oil and gas
Page 79 and 80: 79 granted in 2008-2009 and contain
Page 81 and 82: 81 Emission from flaring is declini
Page 83 and 84: 83 Satellite images can help monito
Page 85 and 86: 85 Under business as usual, relativ
Page 87 and 88: 87 BERAU Berau is the third largest
Page 89 and 90: 89 350,000 ha of Kutai Timur is cat
Page 91 and 92: 91 substantial natural resource ext
Page 93 and 94: 93 Borneo conservation area as well
Page 95 and 96: 95 agricultural processing. As Pena
Page 97: 97 Range of climate related risks t
Page 101 and 102: 101 In addition to the refinery and
Page 103 and 104: 103 The greatest economic risks fro
Page 105 and 106: 105 change issues. In December 2009
Page 107 and 108: 107 Proposed BFCP governance and ma
Page 109 and 110: 109 the lack of a strong system, th
Page 111 and 112: 111 Carbon Accounting, Standards, a
Page 113 and 114: 113 EXAMPLE INITIATIVES REQUIRING C
Page 115 and 116: 115 for example, includes represent
Page 117 and 118: DRAFT 117
Page 119 and 120: 119 Sources • 2010, Kesiapan Kali
Page 121 and 122: 121 • Badan Perijinan Dan Penanam
Page 123 and 124: 123 • Daniel Murdiyarso et al, Me
Page 125 and 126: 125 • Marcus Colchester et al, Pr
Page 127 and 128: 127 • Yosep Ruslim et al, STUDY O
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