East Kalimantan Environmentally Sustainable Development Strategy

97
Range of climate related risks to nature and society
Temperature change
(relative to preindustrial)
1. Weather
2. Water
3. Crops
4. Ecosystem
5. Social
6. GDP
7. Large-scale,
irreversible,
and abrupt
impacts
SOURCE: Stern Review
1ºC 2ºC 3ºC 4ºC 5ºC
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, and heat waves
20%-30% decrease in water
availability in Mediterranean
and South Africa
Falling crop yields in many Sharp decline in crop
developing regions yields in tropical regions
80% bleaching of coral
reefs; extinction of 10%
land species
Possible onset of
collapse of
Amazonian rainforest
Onset of irreversible melting
of Greenland’s ice sheet
(leading to 7 m sea-level rise)
1-4 bn people
suffering from
water shortages
Many species face
extinction (20%-50%)
Major cities threatened by sealevel
rise (e.g., London)
Yields in many developed regions decline,
even if strong carbon fertilization
More than 1 bn people may have to migrate – increased risk of conflicts
Loss of GDP in developing countries
Potential loss of up to 20% global GDP
Increasing risk of abrupt, large-scale shifts in
the climate system
Risk of weakening natural carbon absorption and increasing natural
methane release
with slow and minimal efforts to adopt and share new technology and abatement measures (A2
scenario) could see a temperature rise of 3.2°C by 2100.
East Kalimantan will likely have less temperature change but greater precipitation
change than the global averages, due to its geographic and climatic characteristics
(EXHIBIT 65). Changes in temperature are amplified toward the poles; since East Kalimantan
is located along the equator and is in close proximity to the ocean, it will experience lower than
average temperature increases from climate change. Thus, for every 1°C increase in global
temperature, it is predicted that East Kalimantan will experience a 0.9°C increase. This implies
that in 2030, East Kalimantan could see a 0.3 to 0.6 °C temperature increase compared to 2010.
By 2030 by the best estimate, East Kalimantan is predicted to experience a 0.7 mm increase in
its average monthly rainfall, but the range of prediction is wide, from a decrease of 4.6 mm to an
increase of 4.0 mm. There should be no significant deviation for East Kalimantan from the global
average rise in sea levels; it is predicted that sea levels along the province’s coastline could rise by
up to 20 cm by 2030 and 1.0 m by 2100.
DRAFT
A preliminary diagnostic for East Kalimantan indicates that it will be relatively wellinsulated
from most climate change threats, such as storms, landslides, and droughts.
East Kalimantan is located away from major tropical cyclone pathways due to its close proximity
to the equator (storms typically originate at latitudes higher than 10°), and thus it is not likely to
face greater threats from storms and cyclones. Landslides are much more common in Java
and Sumatra than in East Kalimantan. According to the Agency for Disaster Management there
were only 10 to 12 major landslides in East Kalimantan in 2008 and 2009, and they affected 30
households. Landslides could increase with greater deforestation, but East Kalimantan’s low
population density reduces the pressure for migrants to build structures in vulnerable areas, so
there is less likely to be more substantial loss of life or housing. Historically, droughts have not been
an issue for East Kalimantan, given its regular monsoon rains; climate change forecasts actually
Exhibit 64