Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Four Scenarios in a Nutshell
great distances. Giraffes are also very adaptable
and can exist on their own. Leadership is a very
loose arrangement with no established overall
hierarchy. The giraffe is not constrained by a
strong social structure and individual animals
have great freedom of choice. The giraffe is
essentially an entrepreneur and can readily
adapt to different circumstances. It is also able
to defend itself, either by running away on its
long legs (avoiding conflict) or by using its legs
as weapons. This scenario might be thought of
as market driven or enterprise dominated.
This scenario has minimal government
engagement but significant international and
regional cooperation and integration. In this
scenario, the primary driver is economic
development. The main preoccupation is freeing
up global markets to promote GDP growth
through affordable energy and international
trade. There is increased reliance on market
mechanisms, including in the developing world.
Government involvement is constrained
(predominantly directed to market regulation,
when necessary) and there are few levies or
subsidies. There are few restrictions on global
movement of goods and services.
Little is done by governments to proactively
avoid energy shocks and their effects on all
countries, and what little is done tends to be
short-term oriented. On the positive side is the
capacity of market forces to foster new
technologies and the role of improved private
sector governance and fewer access limitations.
The poor benefit from the open border policies
and possibly from new World Trade
Organisation agreements.
The opening of markets and the reducing of
trade barriers encourage a freer flow of goods
and services. Entrepreneurs actively seek to
enter emerging markets, stimulating innovation.
Market driven interchange leads to more rapid
transfer of technology and experience.
International market opportunities stimulate new
energy-technology development and methods to
protect intellectual property, which plays a very
important role in enabling countries to profit from
these international market opportunities.
Those countries slow to liberalise their markets
are left behind as the entrepreneurs go where
they see better opportunities. Appropriate
rewards are expected for entrepreneurial risks
and this results in a downward poverty spiral for
the already impoverished because they cannot
afford the necessary returns to stimulate
investment in the private sector.
Environmental awareness is enhanced at local
and regional levels, but increasing reliance on
coal and increased energy demand increases
greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon capture and
storage tends to be limited in developing
counties because of a lack of financial and
technological resources and government
inaction.
Because of the lack of proactive government
policy intervention and anticipation, severe
energy shocks probably happen, but the open