Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Next Steps
Energy policy will be different from region to region and even between
nations, especially within more complex regions.
positive and negative) on the
achievement of the 3 A’s.
− It is not clear that plant and equipment
manufacturing capability will exist to
meet the energy supply and demand
needs of the future. The same may be
said about the human capability to
design, construct and operate the
systems as well as the infrastructure
capacity to transmit and deliver the
energy. Clean water affects the means
to produce energy and as a product of
energy investment. New World Bank
country procurement standards will
hopefully be more effective at
achieving sustainable energy systems
than conventional global standards.
− Human capacity to operate energy
systems may not be in the most
desirable locations and may
necessitate extensive migration within
and between regions. This migration
could place further stress on cities.
− Higher fossil energy prices may open
the door for introduction of cleaner
alternatives or they could force
economically marginal countries and
peoples to use dirtier ones.
• The scenarios with high cooperation
indicate enhanced performance relative to
the achievement of the 3 A goals.
− It is not clear what form global energy
markets (trade agreements), regional
or worldwide will take. Yet they are
likely to drive political alliances of the
future.
− It is by no means clear whether the
emerging energy “giants” as producers
or as consumers of energy (China,
India, Brazil and Russia will form
alliances or whether they will focus on
competing with each other. More
public-private partnerships in energy
development will clearly play an
important role in future alliances.
• Most people argue that more energy R&D
is needed, but it is not clear what level is
necessary to provide insurance for a
sustainable energy future.
• The performance on achieving
“Acceptability” is an issue under all
scenarios.
− Carbon markets, of whatever design,
may lead to a stable value for carbon
with incentives lower emissions in
harmony with growth, or someone
could just make a lot of money. It is not
clear if carbon taxes a better bet?
The Study Group recommends these issues to
the leadership and Member Committees of
WEC. The input of delegates to the World
Energy Congress and other energy institutions is
critical on how to address and promote profitable
policy actions.