Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

50
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Regional Achievement of the 3 A’s
Figure 5-2 Relative change from 2005 for Asia for the Leopard scenario
Figure 5-3 Relative change from 2005 for Europe for the Leopard scenario
little attention given to climate change and
Acceptability does not improve.
5.1.3. Europe (Figure 5-3)
All 3 A’s decline through the initial period. Low
government engagement and low cooperation
inhibit technology transfer and development of
common policies. Availability is particularly
affected as Russia tends to follow its own
governmental agenda and Scandinavian
markets become more insular in their approach.
Plenty of opportunity exists for the development
of “national champions” in the energy field.
These companies prosper by following their own
profit motives and have little regard for social
investment. Access to markets becomes
increasingly difficult for non-EU companies.
Toward the end of the period, the private sector
takes a stronger social role and there is some
improvement in achieving the 3 A’s.
Disappointing as these implications are, they are
not nearly as detrimental as those experienced
in Africa and Latin America.
5.1.4. Latin America and the Caribbean
(Figure 5-4)
Low cooperation and integration, coupled with
governments unwilling to step in and take a
direct role in the energy sector, has disastrous
consequences. The Leopard scenario is the
least favorable for the economy, the
environment, and energy consumers. This
scenario can lead to rationing, high prices,
cartels, low economic growth, and low efficiency
with negative environmental impacts.
Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability are
all negatively affected, and in the long run the
region collapses to a level approaching that of
Africa.