Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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38 Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis creates a dilemma almost unique to it: as things begin to work effectively on a regional scale, issues will then be raised over how to transition this cooperation from a regional to a global scale and manage the result. If the world is to have a sustainable energy future, international cooperative schemes on an unprecedented scale (e.g., on the rules of energy trade in the WTO) will likely have to devised and enforced. 4.4. Scenario 4: Giraffe 4.4.1. Global Story Gross Domestic Product Every region sees this scenario as favourable to economic growth, driven by private sector cooperation and interdependence and strong cooperation, perhaps benign, between nations. This is limited only in Latin America by the inadequacies of existing infrastructures requiring significant government action, which does not occur in this scenario. Population Neutral to declining rates of growth occur everywhere, although still positive. Higher migration to large cities and improved standards of living lead to declining birth rates. Energy Intensity Neutral to declining rates occur everywhere. This trend begins later in Africa and Latin America as technology transfer protocols take time to implement and create measurable effects. The model leads to decreasing energy intensities although somewhat less than in the Lion scenario: 23% in 2020, 36% in 2035, and 40% in 2050 (see Figure 4-1). Energy Mix The energy mix in this scenario is more diversified everywhere, although later in Africa and North America. In the former, this is due to the delayed development of renewable energy without strong government incentives. In the latter, it is because of non-conventional oil and biofuels becoming more dominant. Nuclear power does not enjoy a resurgence under this scenario because of the low government involvement. TPER This continues to increase but begins to stabilise late in the period, most notably in Latin America and Africa, due mostly to decreasing energy intensity. In the model, primary energy (modern) production for this scenario increases between 30–40% by 2020, over 80% by 2035, and over 140% by 2050, the result of unfettered cooperation and technology dissemination by industry (see Figure 4-2) Greenhouse Gases Due to the lack of strong government involvement, Asia, Africa, and Latin America see greenhouse gases increasing until perhaps late
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis 39 in the period. In Asia, this increase is a factor of 3 to 4 in 45 years with 70–80% being from the economies of China and India. The model for this scenario predicts CO 2 emissions much greater than with any scenarios involving significant government involvement: almost 40% more in 2020 than 2005, about 80% more in 2035, and almost 110% more in 2050. These levels are the highest of all scenarios (see Figure 4-3). Supply–Demand Tension Oil. Tension tends to increase due to high oil prices driven by robust economies. The exception is Europe, which sees markedly decreasing demand because of those very same high oil prices. Gas. Tension in the gas markets increases in all regions due to demand growth, industrial competition for the resource, and high oil prices. Europe sees the growth of high efficiency, gaspowered electricity generation in response to high oil prices. Latin America sees natural gas scarcity late in the period due to demand outstripping supply. Coal. Tension is seen to increase in all regions, primarily as a result of weak government controls on emissions. Africa sees increased supplies of imported coal in its energy mix, but tension remains high during the period. The increase in tension in North America is lower than elsewhere as coal markets are well established and supplies are large. High efficiency coal (and gas) electricity generation result in increasing tension in Europe. Nuclear Power. In the absence of strong government involvement, nuclear power grows more slowly than in the Lion scenario, but tensions increase because demand outstrips supplies that are too small because of government inaction. Asia sees growth in all three periods nevertheless; with the exception of North America, all regions believe that growth will increase significantly in the last period to meet growing demand in expanding economies. North America believes that the demand will be met earlier and growth will stabilise. Renewable Energies. As in other scenarios, renewable energy demand outstrips supply, thereby increasing tension with little government ability to reduce these tensions. Africa sees cooperation enabling the introduction of renewable technologies. In Latin America, tension results in this scenario from a dilemma with hydropower, being desirable but forecasting difficulty for expansion due to environmental concerns (land use, loss of biodiversity, and resettlement). Solar and biofuels continue to expand. Non-commercial Energy. The results with this energy source are mixed, but in all cases, tension decreases with time as the private sector provides more modern energy services in electricity and transport. This is not surprisingly slowest to happen in Africa. It is again not an issue in North America or Western Europe.
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Member Committees of the World Ener
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