Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis
scenarios, their share is expected to be reduced
to less than 50%, but the absolute value of their
consumption is probably a lot higher than at
present. By 2050, scarcity of conventional oil
and gas is believed to be one of the energy
market’s main features. There may be a need to
avoid or to sequestrate greenhouse gas
emissions. Practically, little more hydro
development is possible, although equipment
manufacturers are still in business due to old
power plant refurbishment. Biomass production
for energy purposes is likely to meet competition
from edible biomass needs, at least in some
areas. So, even though the demographic
pressure is very much reduced, the energy
balance requires very significant improvements
of end-use efficiency and of primary energy
transformations.
4.5.5. North America
The issues of prime importance for North
America are grouped under six themes: energy
supply; end-use; environmental impact;
technology; global market reform and financing;
and policy and coordination.
Energy Supply
In North America, the need for energy supply
continues to expand. It is projected that demand
growth in North America will be more than 30%
by 2030 and could be as much as 50-70% by
2050. To meet this growth, North America will
need to continue increasing its supply from all
traditional sources, including oil, natural gas,
coal, nuclear power, hydropower, and various
renewable sources. In addition, strong support is
needed for new types of energy supply,
including non-conventional sources, such as oil
sands, oil shale, coal-bed methane, tight gas,
and methane hydrates. There is also a need for
additional supply from biofuels.
Supply of oil from conventional sources in all
three countries is projected to decline. Canada’s
overall production of oil, however, is projected to
increase as the oil sands are further developed.
For Mexico, undeveloped oil reserves are
substantial, especially in the sedimentary basin
on the east side of the Sierra Madre Oriental
and in the Gulf of Mexico. However, investment
in exploration and development of these
reserves has lagged, as profits from Pemex
finance other government priorities. This raises
the question of needed fiscal reform so that oil
production can increase. Over the next halfcentury,
it is projected that North America will
continue as a net importer of energy, especially
oil. North America may move toward regional
self-sufficiency, if there is a deterioration of
global trade relations, especially with oilexporting
nations. Furthermore, self-sufficiency
would be in a North America regional context.
It is expected that energy supply from fossil fuels
in North America will change substantially over
the next half-century. There will be increasing
reliance on coal and associated facilities for
producing hydrocarbon derivatives (gaseous
and liquid fuels).
End-Use
North America’s use of energy is high,
compared with other regions of the world.