Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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34 Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis cooperation is a major impediment to accomplishing meaningful emissions reductions. In Asia, emissions increase until late in the period when any realistic application of high efficiency technologies has an impact. The model for this scenario leads to lower future CO 2 emissions than the Leopard scenario: around a 25% increase by 2020, just over a 40% increase by 2035, and staying level until 2050 (see Figure 4-3). Supply–Demand Tension Oil. In general, tension around oil decreases in comparison with the Leopard scenario; however, Africa does not see governments being strong enough to affect the situation and sees tension increasing the same as in the Leopard scenario. Perhaps the biggest change from Leopard is in North America, where governments have an impact on creating alternative fuels (e.g., biofuels, oil from sands). Gas. Gas tension is for the most part seen as the same as the Leopard scenario. Demand increases, but new exploration meets increasing demand to some extent. Much is unknown about the future of this energy source. Gas is assumed to maintain its position in all regions. Coal. With government engagement, coal loses some of its importance in Europe. Other regions show little or no change, with coal continuing to be exploited as an abundant and relatively inexpensive energy source. Nuclear Power. The active engagement of governments in this scenario increases the supply of nuclear power, and therefore tension, as demand may outstrip industry’s ability to provide the necessary manufacturing infrastructure. This increase in tension is a clear and recurring signal that everyone sees strong government engagement as absolutely essential if nuclear power is to play a significant role in the global energy mix. Africa is the exception, and sees strong international cooperation (technology and financing) as essential for the development of nuclear power on the continent. Thus, for Africa to benefit, a combination of government engagement in other regions is required together with regional cooperation and integration in Africa. Renewable Energies. With government engagement and encouragement, everyone sees renewable energy demand increasing, along with tension due to inability to keep up with demand, and as a response to public concerns about the effects of climate change. Non-commercial Energy. Little change is seen from the Leopard scenario. Africa sees population growth increasing the tension here and as before, this is not an issue now in North America or Western Europe and not seen as one in the future. This may be an issue in Asia, and somewhat less in Latin America, with negative effects relating to deforestation. 4.2.2. Winners, Losers, and Dilemmas Because of the stronger role of government in this scenario in comparison with the Leopard scenario, people who need access to energy and energy services are likely to benefit.
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis 35 However, because there is no change in international cooperation and integration, international financing and investment in energy products and services is not improved. There is also lower relative energy security as a result of supply regions not cooperating to an optimum extent with demand regions and nations. Energy industries might also suffer due to a lack of uniform regulation across regions and nations. A dilemma in this scenario may be how Africa and Latin America would reduce carbon emissions, as high government involvement by relatively weak governments could prove to be counterproductive. 4.2.3. Oil Production Limits For illustration, the model examines the effect of limits on oil production by the Gulf States. Rather than using the 45 million barrels per day in 2035 in the model, 25 million barrels per day were used. In this case, the model shows no change in energy intensity from this scenario. Primary modern energy requirements and thus CO 2 emissions are only slightly lower than the results for the Leopard scenario in all time periods. 4.3. Scenario 3: Lion 4.3.1. Global Story Gross Domestic Product This scenario produced the most optimistic estimates in many respects, especially in the development of the global economy. In Asia, the high growth rates of today continue with the combination of significant government engagement and high degrees of cooperation and integration. In Africa, these conditions help with technology transfer and technology leapfrogging, as well as financing. In Latin America, there is concern that active government engagement leaves insufficient room for private enterprise, both domestic and foreign, which can bring managerial and technical improvements to the region and, therefore, an increase in economic efficiency. This effect is felt more intensely in the later period. Population Demographic growth continues at stable rates in Asia and is somewhat higher initially in North America. In Africa and Latin America, population growth rates decline after the initial period due to achieving higher GDP/capita ratios, therefore improved standards of living. Energy Intensity In this scenario energy intensity declines worldwide. As population growth stabilises in Latin America and declines in Africa, and standards of living improve, energy efficiency gains take place and, despite new energy demand, lead to lower energy intensity. In Asia and Europe, a large number of government initiatives leads to increases in energy efficiency and lower energy intensity. Canada and Mexico expect improvements to the levels already seen in the United States where the degree of improvement is expected to continue.
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Member Committees of the World Ener
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