Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Appendices
89
Appendix B: Specialist
Perspectives
10.1.1. Electricity Generation and End-Use
Alongside transportation, the production,
transmission, and use of electricity is one of the
most vital technology-development areas to
achieve the 3 A’s. Rapid global growth in
electricity-generation capacity, fueled by growing
demand, places clear requirements on the broad
deployment of technologies, and along with
other objectives (such as reducing greenhouse
gas emissions), global growth will drive
technological evolution.
Electricity generation technology is likely to be
based on coal, and in the medium-term, on
clean coal technologies. Large increases in
electricity-generation capacity are anticipated in
India and China, which will most likely utilise
their indigenous coal resources. Together with
revitalised coal programmes in North America
and Europe, coal technology is likely to develop
rapidly, moving through a series of evolutionary
cycles from currently available sub-, critical, and
super-critical technologies, culminating in the
development and deployment of advanced
technologies, e.g., integrated gasification
combined cycle (IGCC).
Key to using coal-based generation
technologies, however, is the analogous
development of pollution-control technologies.
These technologies need to focus on micropollutants
such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
oxides, and particulates and on the wider and
pressing issue of carbon dioxide. Further
development and deployment of carbon captureand-storage
technologies is essential.
In addition to coal, other generation technologies
will continue to evolve and play a growing role in
electricity supply. The use of natural gas will
increase and the widespread application of
state-of-the-art combined-cycle gas turbine
(CCGT) technology will continue. However,
access to natural gas is key. It is therefore highly
likely that electricity generation from natural gas
will be limited in its regional and geographical
extent. There is little doubt that imported liquid
natural gas (LNG) will also play a role, as
domestic supplies are unable to keep up with
demand.
It is expected that nuclear power will undergo
something of a renaissance with programmes in
Europe, North America, Russia, China, and
India already confirmed. These programmes
slowly improve technologies into a third and
fourth generation set from the current generation
technologies.
Renewables (including hydropower) continue to
play a growing role. Deployment of electricity
generation via wind and biomass is expected
across the globe, playing key roles in all regions.
Similarly, the development of hydropower will
rise, recognising its role as a cost-effective
provider of electricity. However, the
development of hydropower is constrained by
environmental challenges (displacement of
people, methane production, competition for
fertile land), particularly where large dams are
required.