Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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56 Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Regional Achievement of the 3 A’s Figure 5-13 Relative change from 2005 for Europe for the Lion scenario Regional cooperation encourages integrated projects that enhance Availability. Cooperation between industrialised and developing countries enhances investment from the developed to the developing, which further enhances Accessibility. Oil and gas reserves grow as the result of new discoveries or the re-evaluation of reserves, based on the use of new technologies and energy investment, which leads to higher Availability. First priority in this scenario is sustainable development. Governments’ policies drive energy efficiency improvement that in turn curbs energy demand. International cooperation accelerates technological leapfrogging, resulting in new technologies being deployed more rapidly across the region. All this leads to an improvement in Acceptability. On the other hand, economic growth to some extent offsets the effects of the shift to cleaner energy. 5.3.3. Europe (Figure 5-13) Accessibility improves due to the intervention of governments opening markets in the spirit of high cooperation and interaction. This relaxation of constraints increases competition, which improves quality and reduces prices. The reduction in prices has a direct and very positive impact on affordability that is a key element of all 3 A’s. Consumer countries are quite willing to enter into longer-term discussions with supplier countries. The improvement in demand security is an incentive for suppliers and so, after initially declining, Availability improves to the benefit of all parties. Partially because of this high Availability, the EU is able to reduce its dependence on coal by about 50% over the period through increased use of secure natural gas. This has a significant impact on Acceptability that improves during the first period. The improved performance on Acceptability is sustained, driven by the proactive policies of government that are well received by business under a high cooperation and integration scenario. 5.3.4. Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure 5-14) There is more access to financial, managerial, and technological input than in the Elephant scenario. This makes it possible to execute large-scale projects with long lead times for modernising infrastructure. Opportunities exist for complementary participation on the part of private enterprise Using up-to-date technologies by the government and a greater diversity of foreign trade, than in the Elephant scenario, reduces the importance of intermediate goods (steel, aluminum, pulp, etc.) in the composition of exports, contributing to a reduction in energy intensity. There is greater attention to protecting
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Regional Achievement of the 3 A’s 57 Figure 5-14 Relative change from 2005 for Latin America & Caribbean for the Lion scenario Figure 5-15 Relative change from 2005 for North America for the Lion scenario the environment as a result of domestic and overseas pressures. Cooperation, especially international, drives steady improvement in Acceptability. 5.3.5. North America (Figure 5-15) North America is largely unaffected in the Lion scenario. This is surprising in that there is no implied improvement in Accessibility and Availability in Mexico, even though this is a high cooperation and integration scenario. This performance is in stark contrast to that of the Latin America and the Caribbean region where high cooperation and integration makes a very significant impact. Under the Lion scenario, North America directs much of its effort toward improving Accessibility and Availability in other regions of the world. Performance within the region remains essentially static.
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