Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

6
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Introduction
1. Introduction
“The only limit to our realisation of tomorrow will be our doubts about today.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1.1. Objectives of the Study
So much has changed in the world of energy
since WEC last prepared scenarios in the
1990s. While these were updated at the turn of
the century to take into account new
assumptions about population, the prices of oil
and gas, climate change, and technology
developments, it became apparent that the real
issues today are the emergence of massive new
energy demand in China and India, the market
power of fewer and fewer large suppliers of oil
and natural gas, the shift to generally higher
energy prices worldwide, the role of government
policy and regulation in determining the energy
mix and the value of carbon, and the
regionalisation of energy markets which require
harmonised standards and regulations.
The Terms of Reference for this study contain
three analytical elements, explained in more
detail below. The study’s basic scope is to
evaluate the impact of four possible scenarios
on the fulfillment of the WEC 3 A’s of
Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability
as defined in Section 2. The three analytical
elements are:
• Two axes that characterise the nature of
the policy landscape. These are high or
low engagement by governments, and
high or low cooperation and integration
among nations and regions, and among
the public and private sectors.
• Four scenarios that overlap through the
development of these two axes.
• A number of energy sector metrics that
assist in understanding the details of the
long-term physical energy landscape.
The key challenge facing governments,
business, and society at large is summarised in
Figure 1-1. Average energy consumption per
capita is shown for the nations of the world
today (plotted as cumulative population),
keeping in mind another one billion people
(approximately) have no recorded energy use.
To allow everyone in the world to attain just the
energy use per person of Poland today, or about
100 GJ/capita, 5 would require about twice the
amount of energy the entire world already uses
today, assuming that people who are already
above Poland’s level maintain their current
energy use per capita. To achieve the level of
Russia’s energy use today (~200 GJ/capita),
more than three times as much energy is
required over what is used today.
Where will this energy come from? How will it be
used? What will it cost? What are the ancillary
impacts? These are profound questions that
policymakers have to address, and soon.
5
1EJ = 10 18 joules = 10 9 GJ = 24 million tonnes of oil
equivalent (toe)