Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis
41
Developing Asian economies are becoming motorised societies as
their standards of living improve, which in turn brings an increase in
the demand for transportation fuel, oil and coal liquids and additional
stress on Acceptability.
Acceptability and Availability, as well as
maintaining Accessibility, is subject to
rationalising governmental engagement and
balancing international cooperation for all parties
(shared benefits). Due to the effect of large, fast
emerging economies on the global energy
market, the perspective for this scenario from
2035–2050 could be revised and adjusted at
intervals of time (e.g., every 5 years) to cope
with any rapid changes of the market.
Maximising the use of natural gas, associated
gases, and promoting LPG, are essential for
securing access to modern energy services,
particularly in rural areas, as well as creating
new job opportunities at local village levels.
Promoting the use of nuclear power is
considered one of the main solutions for the
long-term energy sustainability of Africa.
4.5.2. Asia
The population of Asia continues to grow at the
annual average rate of about 0.8% over the
period to 2050. Though China’s population
growth rate decreases towards 2050, the
average growth of India is assumed to continue
at about 1.1%. As a result, the population of
Asia will increase from 3.9 billion in 2005 to
more than 5 billion in 2050.
Due to market-oriented economic reforms and
progress in information technology, the world
economy has become globalised at a rapid pace
and has achieved an annual growth rate of 2.7%
over the past 20 years. In particular, Asian
countries have attained high economic growth
(4.0%), far exceeding that of the world economy
thanks to the virtuous cycle of investment and
export brought about by foreign direct
investment, as well as active technology imports
and a plentiful supply of a high quality workforce.
Thus, Asian countries have been the driving
force for the world’s economy, and Asia has an
extremely large impact on the world’s energy
demand. The Asian share of the world’s primary
energy consumption is currently around 40%,
while primary energy production is around 45%,
positioning Asia (including Middle East) as an
energy supplier with large supply reserves for
the future.
With the support of its surging domestic
demand, China’s economy will sustain high
rates of growth, and India has recently been
rivaling China. By 2035, the economic growth
rate of India might be higher than that of China
and over the period to 2050 India may attain 7–
8%/year sustained GDP annual growth (primary
energy growth rate of India might be 5–
6%/year). Thus, every aspect of this region (e.g.,
GDP growth rate, energy demand and supply,
etc.) will for the most part depend on these two
countries.
Asia’s primary energy demand will grow at an
average of 2–3%/year to 2050. They require
some 15 billion tons of oil equivalent or 625
EJ/year, about 3 times more than the current
level of about 200 EJ/year. About 60% of the
increase is for China and India. Fossil fuels
account for almost 70% of the increase in
consumption, therefore are expected to be an
important energy resource until 2050. Coal is