Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis
Figure 4-1 Percent change in global energy intensity (E/GDP) for the four scenarios from the
mathematical model projections
Percent Change
2005 2020 2035 2050
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Leopard
Elephant
Lion
Giraffe
America sees its already decreasing growth
rates persisting out to 2050. Europe is already
experiencing a downward trend with several
countries having negative growth rates.
Energy Intensity
Africa and Latin America see energy intensity
increasing because of a deteriorating energy
infrastructure combined with limited global
cooperation and little local or international
investment. Asia is generally more optimistic
about this scenario and believes existing trends
will continue to drive down energy intensity, and
this occurs at an average annual rate of about -
0.8% to 2050. The IEA WEO2007 focus on
China and India indicates energy intensity
continuing to fall in India and resuming a decline
in China after increasing earlier in this decade 11 .
North America and Europe see new
technologies introduced regardless of the
constraints in this scenario and intensities
continue to be reduced, although at rates lower
than in the other scenarios.
The mathematical model shows global energy
intensities decreasing by more than 20% by
2020, about 30% by 2035, and over 35% by
2050, compared with 9.7 MJ/$ppp in 2005 (see
Figure 4.1).
Energy Mix
Asia and Europe see the mix of energy
technologies as unchanging from today
throughout the period to 2050 because of weak
incentives and as countries look inward. The IEA
WEO2007 reference scenario sees continuing
growth in all fuels except for biomass and waste,
while China’s coal demand, with a significant
coal to liquids market, is seen as growing as fast
as TPER, keeping the share of coal constant 12 .
Africa is pessimistic and sees the inward looking
aspects implying that countries focus only on
existing energy within their borders. Latin
America also sees a decrease because of the
difficulty of attracting significant capital outlays
demanded by large projects. North America is
optimistic that the diversification of energy
sources will continue, emphasising the
introduction of low carbon technologies.
TPER
With the exception of North America, the early
demand for energy (2020) in other regions,
driven mostly by population increase, results in
an increase in the growth of overall energy
requirements. In some cases (e.g., Africa), an
increase in energy intensity exacerbates this
trend. North America sees a correlation with
economic growth, and when combined with
declines in energy intensity, TPER remains at
current levels.
The model shows primary energy (modern)
production in this scenario increasing over that
of today by 35% in 2020, 65% in 2035, and
doubling by 2050 (see Figure 4-2). TPER levels
11 World Energy Outlook 2007, International Energy
Agency, Paris, 2007
12 World Energy Outlook 2007, International Energy
Agency, Paris, 2007