Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Next Steps
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8. Next Steps
“Nous sommes responsables non seulement de ce que nous faisons, mais aussi de ce que nous ne
faisons pas.”
(We are not only responsible for what we do, but also for what we do not do.)
Moliére (Jean Baptiste Poquelin)
The scenarios described in this study consider
ways in which the global community might react
to different sets of circumstances. With two
primary dimensions - high or low engagement of
government and high or low cooperation and
integration between the public and private
sectors of nations and between regions - four
sets of circumstances arise. These
circumstances are not mutually exclusive and
each may include characteristics of the others,
but they do define general areas of policy
actions. The study has considered the impact
that policy options will have on achieving the
Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability goals
from 2005 to 2050.
The impact of the postulated scenarios differs
from region to region and clearly illustrates the
fallacy of a “one size fits all” approach to energy
policy. Each region grapples with a unique set of
energy issues. While there are things in
common, there is much that is unique to a
region(s). It is important to accept that energy
policy will be different from region to region and
even between nations, especially within some of
the more complex regions. There will also be
inter-regional effects such as the way conflicts in
the Middle East affect energy prices around the
world.
The study, as is typical for scenarios studies,
raised many issues for which there are no easy
answers. While these issues are either in total or
part beyond the scope of this study, they point
the way to further study.
• All four scenarios point to a doubling of
TPER over the period to 2050.
− It is not clear where this additional
energy will come from. Individual
countries and large cities must address
not only their requirements but also the
distribution and cost of energy
services.
− Decisions will have to be made about
whether specific energy systems are
based on public preference or on
economics, or some combination. It is
not clear which course markets will
take and policy actions are likely
critical to determine the answer.
• Energy systems will be under stress in all
four scenarios.
− This stress will force both governments
and markets to make choices.
− National oil companies may replace
international oil corporations, changing
the dynamic.
− Significant investments in oil shale and
sands, carbon capture and storage,
biofuels, nuclear power, and very
efficient transport will clearly depend
on government decisions.
− There may be more competition
between energy producers and endusers
than between energy sources.
− Volatility and liquidity of the markets
will almost certainly be impacted by the
overall stress on the energy system.
− Oil price shocks and are likely to
accelerate a transition away from oil
and gas with consequent effects (both