Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Foreword
Foreword
Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to
2050 is a major study from the 2005–2007 work
cycle of the World Energy Council (WEC). It
follows earlier WEC work, Energy for
Tomorrow's World (1993) 1 and Global Energy
Perspectives (1998) 2 that were updated in
WEC’s Millennium Statement Energy for
Tomorrow’s World - Acting Now! (2000) 3 and
Drivers of the Energy Scene (2003) 4 .
WEC decided at its Sydney Congress in 2004 to
build new energy scenarios with three principal
changes from previous work. First, the scenarios
should be based on policy and on “bottom-up”
regional and specialist work of the Member
Committees of WEC. Second, they should test
plausible storylines against the criteria of the
WEC sustainability goals of energy Accessibility,
Availability and Acceptability (the 3 A’s). Finally,
they should have a sufficiently long-term focus
to underpin clear recommendations on policies
and actions that will achieve targeted results by
2050.
With this study WEC seeks to contribute further
to the debate on global energy sustainability and
to the understanding of prospective collective
roles in achieving WEC’s mission, “to promote
the sustainable supply and use of energy for the
greatest benefit of all.” The study aims to:
• Better understand possible energy
futures;
• Assess the challenges presented in these
energy futures; and
• Identify the role that policy may play to
help or hinder the achievement of WEC’s
Millennium Goals of Accessibility,
Availability, and Acceptability.
Key issues for the energy scene covered in this
report include:
Supply pressures involving risk in the security
of global resources; the outlook for infrastructure
investment and alternative energy sources;
research, development, demonstration and
deployment (RDD&D); and the introduction of
new technologies.
Demand pressures related to forecasts of
economic growth, expectations of consumer and
industrial demand, constraints imposed by
existing infrastructures, and related expectations
of global economic volatility, all in key regional
markets,
Environmental pressures and the likelihood of
political, legislative, and social action to reduce
carbon emissions in the near future, and;
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2
3
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Energy for Tomorrow’s World, World Energy Council,
London, 1993.
Global Energy Perspectives, World Energy Council,
London, 1998.
Energy for Tomorrow’s World: Acting Now, World Energy
Council Statement 2000, London.
Drivers of the Energy Scene, Study Report, World Energy
Council, London, 2004.
Political pressures linked to potential political
actions in key regions, including the Middle East,
Russia, Latin America, and Central and West
Africa; a major question is whether national
governments will use energy resources to