Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Principal Observations and Conclusions
Figure 6-1 Relative change normalized to 2005
for key indicators in Section 3.5 for the Leopard
scenario
Figure 6-2 Relative change normalized to 2005 for
key indicators in Section 3.5 for the Elephant
scenario
Figure 6-3 Relative change normalized to 2005
for key indicators in Section 3.5 for the Lion scenario
Figure 6-4 Relative change normalized to 2005 for
key indicators in Section 3.5 for the Giraffe scenario
Figures 6-1 to 6-4 show results from the model
of the normalised movement relative to 2005 for
some key indicators that are used to frame the
four scenarios:
Economic Activity (GDP)
Energy Intensity (TPER/GDP)
Total Primary Energy Requirement
(TPER)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)
Emissions Intensity (GHG/GDP)
The participants in the study express great hope
for renewable energies, but reasonable
expectations. Starting from a low base number,
these sources will make an important impact but
will not dominate any markets in the time period
up to 2050. Nuclear power clearly needs strong
government engagement to play an increasing
role in the energy mix and in reducing climate
emissions, but also strong international
cooperation for countries that need to master the
technology.
Government engagement decreases tension in the
oil markets, and when combined with private
sector cooperation and integration, the effect is
more pronounced. Perhaps surprisingly, private
sector cooperation and integration is generally
not seen as reducing supply–demand tension,
mostly because this is also seen as leading to
robust economic growth and thus demand.
There is also concern that uncontrolled private
initiative may lead to higher prices rather than
widespread and accessible supplies. Another
factor that may influence oil tension in general is
a large reduction in production from the Middle
East, whether by design or technical limits.