Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

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Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 World Energy Council 2007 Results of Analysis
cooperation is a major impediment to
accomplishing meaningful emissions reductions.
In Asia, emissions increase until late in the
period when any realistic application of high
efficiency technologies has an impact.
The model for this scenario leads to lower future
CO 2 emissions than the Leopard scenario:
around a 25% increase by 2020, just over a 40%
increase by 2035, and staying level until 2050
(see Figure 4-3).
Supply–Demand Tension
Oil. In general, tension around oil decreases in
comparison with the Leopard scenario; however,
Africa does not see governments being strong
enough to affect the situation and sees tension
increasing the same as in the Leopard scenario.
Perhaps the biggest change from Leopard is in
North America, where governments have an
impact on creating alternative fuels (e.g.,
biofuels, oil from sands).
Gas. Gas tension is for the most part seen as
the same as the Leopard scenario. Demand
increases, but new exploration meets increasing
demand to some extent. Much is unknown about
the future of this energy source. Gas is assumed
to maintain its position in all regions.
Coal. With government engagement, coal loses
some of its importance in Europe. Other regions
show little or no change, with coal continuing to
be exploited as an abundant and relatively
inexpensive energy source.
Nuclear Power. The active engagement of
governments in this scenario increases the
supply of nuclear power, and therefore tension,
as demand may outstrip industry’s ability to
provide the necessary manufacturing
infrastructure. This increase in tension is a clear
and recurring signal that everyone sees strong
government engagement as absolutely essential
if nuclear power is to play a significant role in the
global energy mix. Africa is the exception, and
sees strong international cooperation
(technology and financing) as essential for the
development of nuclear power on the continent.
Thus, for Africa to benefit, a combination of
government engagement in other regions is
required together with regional cooperation and
integration in Africa.
Renewable Energies. With government
engagement and encouragement, everyone
sees renewable energy demand increasing,
along with tension due to inability to keep up
with demand, and as a response to public
concerns about the effects of climate change.
Non-commercial Energy. Little change is seen
from the Leopard scenario. Africa sees
population growth increasing the tension here
and as before, this is not an issue now in North
America or Western Europe and not seen as
one in the future. This may be an issue in Asia,
and somewhat less in Latin America, with
negative effects relating to deforestation.
4.2.2. Winners, Losers, and Dilemmas
Because of the stronger role of government in
this scenario in comparison with the Leopard
scenario, people who need access to energy
and energy services are likely to benefit.