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74 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida livelihoods in the long run. But combatants returned to civilian life, and political violence declined. 29 Implementing the Agreement Over the subsequent several years, the FMLN demobilized its forces and transitioned from a terrorist and insurgent organization to a viable political party. It remained committed to nonviolence because its key goals were met over the long run: democratic transition, end of government repression, and some land reform. This was not inevitable. As Barbara Walter has pointed out, peace settlements have often broken down between warring parties—including between terrorist organizations and the government. 30 A failure to implement the Chapultepec agreement would likely have triggered a return to terrorism. Democratic Transition The United Nations monitored and supported the conduct of four simultaneous elections in March 1994: for president, parliament, municipal councils, and the Parlamento Centroamericano. El Salvador’s Tribunal Supremo Electoral managed all the elections. ONUSAL’s electoral division assisted in voter registration, monitored the election campaign, and provided assistance in drawing up the voter rolls. During the voter-registration period, ONUSAL offered technical and logistical support to the Tribunal Supremo Electoral, which possessed outdated computer equipment and faced transportation and communication problems. 31 Monitoring teams made more than 2,350 visits to towns throughout the country to assist in voter 29 Graciana Del Castillo, “The Arms-for-Land Deal in El Salvador,” in Michael W. Doyle, Ian Johnstone, and Robert C. Orr, eds., Keeping the Peace: Multidimensional UN Operations in Cambodia and El Salvador, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997, pp. 342–366, pp. 362–363; Wood (2000, p. 107). 30 Barbara F. Walter, Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2002. 31 Boutros Boutros-Ghali, “Report of rhe Secretary-General on the United Nations Observer Mission in El Salvador,” New York: United Nations, S/1994/179, February 6, 1994a, p. 3.
Politics and the FMLN in El Salvador 75 registration. 32 Observer teams attended more than 800 political events and monitored political advertising through the mass media. On election day, ONUSAL deployed almost 900 international observers to observe conduct at the polls and the counting of the ballots; each of the 355 policing centers in El Salvador was monitored. Following the UN recommendation, polling stations marked voters with indelible ink to prevent multiple voting by the same individual. 33 A team of 40 specialized observers was also deployed to the Tribunal Supremo Electoral to monitor the official count. 34 There were some voting irregularities and organizational problems on election day. But the elections were ultimately successful. There were no serious security problems and no ballot rigging. ARENA received 49 percent of the vote and 39 seats in the legislative assembly, the FMLN coalition received 25 percent and 22 seats, and the Christian Democratic Party 5 percent and 18 seats. No candidate in the presidential election obtained an absolute majority. A second round of voting was held on April 24, 1994, between the two candidates with the highest number of votes. Armando Calderón Sol, the ARENA candidate, won with 68 percent. Over the ensuing decade, El Salvador regularly held free and fair democratic elections. Newspapers, books, magazines, films, and plays were not censored. Academic freedom was respected. The FMLN reinvented itself as a political party and became an increasingly powerful political force. It increased its seats in the national assembly in 1997; became the largest party in the assembly in 2000; and retained that position in 2003, with 35 percent of the popular vote. 35 32 Boutros Boutros-Ghali, “Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Observer Mission in El Salvador,” New York: United Nations, S/1994/304, March 16, 1994b, p. 2; UN/DPI (1995a, p. 438). 33 Boutros-Ghali (1994a, p. 6; 1994b, p. 4). 34 Boutros Boutros-Ghali, “Report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Observer Mission in El Salvador,” New York: United Nations, S/1994/375, March 31, 1994c, p. 3. 35 Jenny Pearce, “From Civil War to ‘Civil Society’: Has the End of the Cold War Brought Peace to Central America?” International Affairs, Vol. 74, No. 3, July 1998, pp. 587–615, p. 605.
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THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE
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HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Lessons fo
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About the Authors Seth G. Jones is
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Preface By analyzing 648 groups tha
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viii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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Tables 5.1. Insurgent Groups and In
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Acknowledgments This book would not
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xxii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction There has
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Introduction 3 At the core of these
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Introduction 5 The first step was t
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Introduction 7 attention, processin
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CHAPTER TWO How Terrorist Groups En
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How Terrorist Groups End 11 Some ar
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How Terrorist Groups End 13 helping
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How Terrorist Groups End 17 nomic n
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How Terrorist Groups End 21 terrori
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APPENDIX A End-of-Terror Data Set T
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Table A.1—Continued Organization
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APPENDIX B Al Qa’ida Attacks, 199
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Al Qa’ida Attacks, 1994-2007 189
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APPENDIX C Regression Analysis Usin
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Regression Analysis 199 Table C.1 P
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References 9/11 Commission—see Na
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References 203 ———, “Report
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References 205 ———, “How al
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References 207 Gompert, David C., J
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References 209 Interview with membe
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References 211 Kosal, Margaret, “
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References 213 ———, Continued
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References 215 Parachini, John, “
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References 217 Rubin, Trudy, “New
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References 219 United Nations Depar
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References 221 West, Bing, and Owen
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