How Terrorist Groups End - RAND Corporation

20 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida
stop using terrorism as a tactic. 34 The next two sections explore the
logic of politics and policing in more detail.
Political Solutions
Most terrorist groups that have ended did so by pursuing their goals
through politics. The possibility of a political solution is linked to a
key variable: the breadth of terrorist goals. As Figure 2.2 shows, most
terrorist groups that end because of politics seek narrow policy goals,
such as policy change, territorial change, or regime change. The further
right on the x-axis, the less likely a terrorist group will end because
of politics. There are two major logics at play. First, the narrower a
Figure 2.2
Politics and Group Goals
50
45
Terrorist groups that end due
to politicization
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Status
quo
RAND MG741-2.2
Policy
change
Territorial
change
Group goal
Regime
change
Empire
Social
revolution
34 Out of the 648 total groups active since 1968, 244 terrorist groups still existed in 2006,
and 404 had ended. Of the 404 groups that ended, 136 (or 28 percent) ended because of
splintering.