How Terrorist Groups End - RAND Corporation

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196 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida Table B.1—Continued Date Location Description December 11, 2007 December 27, 2007 Algiers, Algeria Rawalpindi, Pakistan In one of two coordinated suicide bombings, a member of al Qa’ida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb detonated an explosive-laden vehicle outside the United Nations office for the High Commissioner for Refugees and the UN Development Program building; in total, approximately 67 people were killed and 177 wounded in both attacks, though conflicting news reports exist on these precise figures. In one of two coordinated suicide bombings, a member of al Qa’ida Organization in the Islamic Maghreb detonated an explosive-laden vehicle outside the Algerian constitutional court, destroying a nearby bus packed with university students; in total, approximately 67 people were killed and 177 wounded in both attacks, though conflicting news reports exist on these precise figures. Members of al Qa’ida and allies of Pakistani tribal leader Baitullah Mehsud fired two shots at former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and then detonated a suicide bomb after a political rally at Liaquat National Bagh, killing 24 people and wounding approximately 50 others.
APPENDIX C Regression Analysis Using regression analysis to try to explain which terrorist groups lasted how long or how they ended entails creating a dependent variable (e.g., lifetime) and seeing whether it is correlated with one or more independent variables (e.g., its primary classification). Our analysis refuted many hypotheses and confirmed none. The only variable that correlated with terrorist duration (explained in this appendix) was the group’s peak size. Essentially, the larger terrorist groups were those that lasted longer and were more likely either to achieve their outcomes or to close up shop consistently with their goals (e.g., politics). But causality could work the other way: Longevity, in part, may explain size. In performing this task, we created a single “success” measure for terrorist groups that had to include how they ended (e.g., in victory or not), how long they lasted, and (because many such groups are of recent formation) whether they were still active. Our measure was built on a point system, composed of three factors: Longevity: The points awarded equal the square root of the number of years between the group’s founding and its ending, or 2006, if they were alive as of that date. Survival: If the group was alive, the points awarded for the longevity measure were doubled—but in no case was allowed to exceed 10 points. Ending: We added 10 points if the group ended because of victory and two points if it ended because of politics or splintering (conversely, a group that ended because of police or military pressure received no extra points). 197
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THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE
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HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Lessons fo
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About the Authors Seth G. Jones is
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Preface By analyzing 648 groups tha
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viii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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Tables 5.1. Insurgent Groups and In
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xiv How Terrorist Groups End: Lesso
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xvi How Terrorist Groups End: Lesso
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Acknowledgments This book would not
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xxii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction There has
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Introduction 3 At the core of these
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Introduction 5 The first step was t
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Introduction 7 attention, processin
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CHAPTER TWO How Terrorist Groups En
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How Terrorist Groups End 11 Some ar
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How Terrorist Groups End 13 helping
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How Terrorist Groups End 15 ficient
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How Terrorist Groups End 17 nomic n
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How Terrorist Groups End 19 or kill
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How Terrorist Groups End 21 terrori
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How Terrorist Groups End 23 ended i
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How Terrorist Groups End 25 Consequ
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How Terrorist Groups End 27 Policin
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How Terrorist Groups End 29 ment of
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CHAPTER FIVE Military Force and al
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Military Force and al Qa’ida in I
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APPENDIX A End-of-Terror Data Set T
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Table A.1—Continued Organization
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