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14 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida or individual level. 14 In some cases, groups may choose to participate in politics following a peace settlement with the government. This could be because structural conditions have changed, such as a transition from authoritarianism to democracy. In addition, nonviolent groups may temporarily use terrorism in response to a specific event or events and then return to nonviolence. In France, for example, leftwing groups, such as the Totally Anti-War Group (Association Totalement Anti-Guerre, or ATAG), briefly resorted to terrorism to protest the U.S. war in Afghanistan in 2001 but then returned to nonviolence. Some argue that a wide range of variables can affect a group’s willingness to turn to nonviolent means, such as the group’s organizational structure (hierarchical organizations may be more likely to negotiate than networked groups) and the nature of public support for the cause (groups with more-ambivalent support networks may be more likely to compromise). 15 Finally, some groups end once they attain victory. 16 That is, terrorist groups may abandon terrorism because their objectives have been achieved. There are several historical examples: the Irgun Zvai Leumi in Israel, the Ethniki Organosis Kyprion Agoniston (EOKA) in Cyprus, and National Liberation Front (Front de Libération Nationale, or FLN) in Algeria. As Bruce Hoffman argued, Although governments throughout history and all over the world always claim that terrorism is ineffective as an instrument of political change, the examples of Israel, Cyprus, and Algeria . . . provide convincing evidence to the contrary. 17 Some terrorist groups, such as the Irgun, EOKA, and FLN, may play a direct role in achieving victory, though terrorism alone is rarely suf- 14 Crenshaw (1996, pp. 266–268); USIP (1999). 15 Cronin (2006, pp. 25–27). 16 Ross and Gurr (1989, p. 408); Dershowitz (2002); Pape (2005); Lake (2002); Kydd and Walter (2006); USIP (1999). 17 Hoffman (2006, p. 61).
How Terrorist Groups End 15 ficient to achieve success. 18 In other cases, a group may play little or no role in causing change, but the change they seek happens anyway. For instance, a number of terrorist groups that advocated the creation of an independent Armenian state, such as the Armenian Resistance Group, disbanded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. While they played no role in the collapse of the Soviet Union, one of their major objectives (independence for Armenia) was, in fact, achieved. Explanatory Variables We also looked at five factors that can influence how long terrorist groups last and how they end: ideological motivation, economic conditions, regime type, the size of groups, and the breadth of terrorist goals. Governments cannot control most of these factors. A group’s ideological motivation may influence how the group ends and after how many years. Groups can be divided into at least four types: left-wing, right-wing, nationalist, or religious. 19 Left-wing includes a range of Marxist-Leninist, environmental, animal rights, anarchical, and antiglobalization groups. Right-wing includes racist and fascist groups. Nationalist includes groups inspired by a desire for independence, territorial control, or autonomy because of ethnic or other affiliations. Religious terrorists commit acts of terrorism to comply with a religious mandate or to force others to follow that mandate. Some studies have suggested that terrorist groups motivated by nationalist and religious goals last the longest. 20 They typically have strong sources of support among the local population of the same ethnicity, and “broader popular support is usually the key to the greater average longevity of ethno-nationalist/separatist groups in the modern era.” 21 As another study concluded, The nature of the grievances matters. Ethnically based terrorist campaigns can be harder to end decisively than politically based 18 Crenshaw (1996, p. 260). 19 Cronin (2002–2003, pp. 39–42). 20 Cronin (2002–2003; 2006, p. 13); USIP (1999). 21 Cronin (2002–2003, p. 40).
Page 1 and 2: THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE
Page 3 and 4: HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Lessons fo
Page 5 and 6: About the Authors Seth G. Jones is
Page 7: Preface By analyzing 648 groups tha
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Page 13: Tables 5.1. Insurgent Groups and In
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Page 21: Acknowledgments This book would not
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Page 27 and 28: CHAPTER ONE Introduction There has
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CHAPTER FIVE Military Force and al
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Military Force and al Qa’ida in I
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104 How Terrorist Groups End: Lesso
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APPENDIX A End-of-Terror Data Set T
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Table A.1—Continued Organization
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APPENDIX B Al Qa’ida Attacks, 199
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Al Qa’ida Attacks, 1994-2007 189
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APPENDIX C Regression Analysis Usin
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Regression Analysis 199 Table C.1 P
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References 9/11 Commission—see Na
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References 203 ———, “Report
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References 205 ———, “How al
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References 207 Gompert, David C., J
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References 209 Interview with membe
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References 211 Kosal, Margaret, “
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References 213 ———, Continued
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References 215 Parachini, John, “
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References 217 Rubin, Trudy, “New
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References 219 United Nations Depar
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References 221 West, Bing, and Owen
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