How Terrorist Groups End - RAND Corporation

36 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida
addition, terrorist groups capable of conducting an insurgency require
different treatment from that given to terrorist groups that do not rise
to the level of insurgents.
The most salient fact about religious terrorist groups is how hard
they are to eliminate. As noted, 62 percent of all terrorist groups have
ended, but only 32 percent of religious terrorist groups have ended.
Does this result primarily from the fact that religious terrorist groups
(median start year 1997) are more recent than the other groups
(median start year 1988)? Our analysis suggests that it does not. As
Figure 2.5 shows, the survivability of religious groups is substantially
higher within each cohort. Of the 45 religious terrorist groups that did
end, most (26) splintered. None achieved its aims. Of those that ended
under pressure from authorities, most (13) fell to policing, while only
Figure 2.5
Survivability of Religious Groups
0.8
0.7
All other terrorist groups
Religious groups
0.6
Surviving groups (%)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
RAND MG741-2.5
1970s and before
1980s
Decade ended
1990s
2000 and later