How Terrorist Groups End - RAND Corporation

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100 How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering al Qa’ida Table 5.2 Insurgent Groups and Size Size of Group Insurgents Others Insurgent Share (%) >10,000 members 19 11 63 1,000–9,999 members 45 37 55 100–999 members 13 157 8 0–99 members 7 359 2 Table 5.3 Insurgent Groups and Goals Group Goal Insurgents Others Insurgent Share (%) Social revolution 0 75 0 Empire 2 22 8 Regime change 44 177 20 Territorial change 30 146 17 Policy change 5 123 4 Status quo 3 21 12 The final factor is how insurgent groups end. The results are shown in Table 5.4. When a terrorist group becomes an insurgent group, it does not go easily. Half of the insurgent groups have not ended (seven of these were Iraqi, four were Palestinian). The data show that, when insurgent groups have ended, nearly half of the time, they negotiated a settlement with the government. A quarter of the time, the group achieved victory. If a political solution is not feasible and the group did not achieve victory, military force has often been a viable option. Roughly 19 percent of insurgent groups ended because military forces defeated them. Policing is rarely effective against insurgent groups when used as the primary tool, since well-armed, well-motivated groups tend to overmatch police.
Military Force and al Qa’ida in Iraq 101 Table 5.4 The End of Insurgent Groups End of Group Insurgents Others Splintering 4 132 Policing 2 105 Victory 10 17 Military force 8 12 Politics 18 96
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THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE
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HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Lessons fo
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About the Authors Seth G. Jones is
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Preface By analyzing 648 groups tha
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viii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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Tables 5.1. Insurgent Groups and In
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xiv How Terrorist Groups End: Lesso
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xvi How Terrorist Groups End: Lesso
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Acknowledgments This book would not
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xxii How Terrorist Groups End: Less
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction There has
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Introduction 3 At the core of these
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Introduction 5 The first step was t
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Introduction 7 attention, processin
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CHAPTER TWO How Terrorist Groups En
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How Terrorist Groups End 11 Some ar
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How Terrorist Groups End 13 helping
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How Terrorist Groups End 15 ficient
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How Terrorist Groups End 17 nomic n
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How Terrorist Groups End 19 or kill
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How Terrorist Groups End 21 terrori
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How Terrorist Groups End 23 ended i
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How Terrorist Groups End 25 Consequ
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How Terrorist Groups End 27 Policin
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How Terrorist Groups End 29 ment of
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How Terrorist Groups End 31 Under m
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How Terrorist Groups End 33 that th
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How Terrorist Groups End 39 Figure
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How Terrorist Groups End 41 Figure
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Table A.1—Continued Organization
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APPENDIX B Al Qa’ida Attacks, 199
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Al Qa’ida Attacks, 1994-2007 189
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APPENDIX C Regression Analysis Usin
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Regression Analysis 199 Table C.1 P
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References 9/11 Commission—see Na
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References 203 ———, “Report
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References 205 ———, “How al
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References 207 Gompert, David C., J
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References 209 Interview with membe
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References 211 Kosal, Margaret, “
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References 213 ———, Continued
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References 215 Parachini, John, “
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References 217 Rubin, Trudy, “New
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References 219 United Nations Depar
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References 221 West, Bing, and Owen
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