Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

The EU leadership obviously does not
want to get involved in disputes with
Moscow and will avoid a direct conflict,
though some of the right-wing
representatives will try to instigate
more serious conflict around the differences
between the EU and Russia.
The European Commission clearly
intends to resume and strengthen
its influence in Ukraine. The most efficient
way of doing this was deemed
to be direct participation of the EU
governance bodies’ representatives
in negotiations between the Ukrainian
authorities and the opposition.
Precisely this form of cooperation has
already been offered by Catherin Ashton
during her visit to Kiev and was
supported by most of the European
parliament deputies.
By delaying the handling of the political
crisis in Ukraine, the US and the
EU actually added to the internal economic
problems in Ukraine and used
the country’s approach to default as
leverage to enable them to force official
Kiev to change the make up of
the government. With this perspective
any new Cabinet of Ministers of
Ukraine could have a coalition character.
It would include the opposition
representatives enjoying the confidence
of Washington and Brussels
and delegates from the main oligarchic
groups who act as the main US
and EU allies in the existing balance
of forces and interests. 1
As a result, Kiev could not have
avoided signing a new memorandum
with the IMF on the credit program
for $15 billion. That is, the new government
could easily have coped
with the debts to the IMF and payments
to other creditors due in 2014,
but this bargain would have resulted
in cutting down the opportunities of
the government to adjust the financial
policy, worsening the living standards,
decreasing state capabilities
in the social security sphere, curtailing
production on the local market
with “dear” money and high prices
for gas being delivered from Russia.
The Foreign Ministers of Poland and
Sweden R. Sikorski and C. Bildt have
already offered Azarov a “Council on
Reforms and European Integration”.
This body is expected to be founded
by the EU and the IMF, with the supposed
“participation” of representatives
of Ukraine to be engaged in
obtaining and allocating the IMF
credit and ensuring relevant microeconomic
conditions. 2
Therein lies the EU’s response to the
Ukrainian government’s proposal to
continue with the negotiations. To
begin with, the European politicians
advised the Ukrainian government
to fulfil the IMF requirements. But
by fulfilling the IMF requirements
the president and the government of
Ukraine would have lost the voters
support, and so Sikorski and Bildt
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CASPIAN REPORT, WINTER 2014
1
. It was assumed that with the help of “Maidan” the opposition leaders would deliver the terms of their
ultimatum to V. Yanukovich that would allow him to retain his nominal powers till 2015 subject to
forming the technical government with relatively proportional representation of the basic oligarchic
groups and restoration of the 2004 version of the Ukrainian Constitution.
2
. Słojewska A., Stankiewicz A. Unia oferuje mediację // Reczpospolita. 06.12.2013. - http://www.rp.pl/
artykul/11,1070336-Unia-oferuje-mediacje.htmlp=1