Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

ROMAN RUKOMEDA
44
to lend Ukraine 15 billion USD, 1 by
investing in Ukrainian government
bonds from the Russian National
Welfare Fund. The first tranche of 3
billion USD has already gone through.
Now preparations are underway for
IN GENERAL, UKRAINIAN FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE EU AND TOWARD RUSSIA HAS AFFECTED ALL
ASPECTS OF RELATIONS AND COOPERATION BETWEEN
KYIV AND MOSCOW.
the second step, although the Russian
government has announced that
they are waiting until the situation in
Ukraine has stabilized.
In general, Ukrainian foreign policy
shift away from the EU and toward
Russia has affected all aspects of relations
and cooperation between Kyiv
and Moscow. One of those issues is
the sensitive matter of Russian gas
transit to the EU market. There is
direct link between the transit volumes
of gas and the level of cooperation
with Moscow, as this issue is
more political then economic. For example,
the transit of Russian natural
gas to Europe via Ukraine increased
by 3.2%, or 1.9 billion cubic meters,
to 86.1 bcm in 2013 from 84.2 bcm
in 2012. The shipment includes supplies
to the EU and Moldova. In total,
Ukraine is capable of shipping up to
120 bcm of gas annually to EU via its
pipelines. 2
An additional point on the new
Ukrainian – Russian gas agreement
relates to the presence of Russian
gas in the Ukrainian market. In 2013,
Ukraine reduced Russian natural
gas imports by 15%, or 4.9 bcm, to
about 28 bcm from 32.9 bcm in 2012.
About 8 bcm was bought by the company
Ostchem, which is affiliated
with one of Ukraine’s major big business
figures, Dmytro Firtash. This
year, after the new gas deal, Ukrainian
government representatives
announced that the annual volume
of Russian gas planned for purchase
is about 33-35 bcm. Clearly, Russia
is trying to stimulate an increase
of Russian gas exports in Ukraine.
This situation creates a huge number
of risks to other sectors of the
Ukrainian energy system, which has
started to develop during the high
prices on Russian gas the reduction
of its consumption.
GENERAL PERSPECTIVE
Starting from the last “gas war”
between Ukraine and Russia at the
beginning of 2009, Ukraine’s practical
policy seriously changed, especially
with the victory of Viktor Yanukovych
in the 2010 presidential elections. The
main platform for new the Ukrainian
policy became energy. The energy
sphere continues to be the object of
geopolitical interest among the US, EU
and Russia, as the world enters the age
of new hydro carbonates production
technologies, including shale gas,
deep shelf gas, coal bed methane and
methane hydrates. Revolutionary
new ways of obtaining oil and gas are
1
. Russia Promises Ukraine Cheaper Gas, $15 Billion Loan - http://www.voanews.com/content/russiapromises-ukraine-cheaper-gas-15-billion-loan/1811836.html
2
. Transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine up 3.2% on year in 2013 - http://russia.platts.com/
latest-news/natural-gas/kiev/transit-of-russian-natural-gas-via-ukraine-up-26609556