Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

Protests in Maidan,
Ukraine.
to preliminary estimates, Ukrainian
exports to Russia in 2013 decreased
by approximately 25 or 30 per cent of
their value compared with 2012. The
current situation further confirms the
external imbalance between Ukraine
and the EU.
3. If we consider the structure of
Ukraine’s economy, the pattern of
trade between Ukraine and the EU
cannot be regarded as a decisive
impetus for European integration,
especially against the background
of the EU’s complete refusal to recognize
Ukraine’s membership prospects.
The terms of the Agreement
with the EU regarding the free trade
area between the EU and Ukraine
could lead to even greater imbalance
in foreign trade and negative balance
growth for Ukraine, significantly limiting
its ability to determine its own
trade and economic regimes in relations
with third countries.
4. In the event of creating a FTA between
the EU and Ukraine in the
INTRODUCTION OF CUSTOMS RESTRICTIONS ON
UKRAINIAN EXPORTS TO RUSSIA IN AUGUST-SEPTEMBER
2013 DEMONSTRATED THE VULNERABILITY OF THE
UKRAINIAN ECONOMY AND ITS CRITICAL DEPENDENCE
ON ITS COMMODITY EXPORTS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET.
current pre-agreed set of conditions,
the introduction by the Customs
Union of increased import duties for
the Ukrainian goods cannot be compensated
by partial liberalization
of trade with the EU. Rather it will
merely increase the total losses in
the Ukraine and in budget revenues
and foreign trade, bringing them to
unacceptable levels. Ukraine, however,
still intends to continue negotiations
with the EU and declares
plans to revise the conditions related
to the signing and implementation of
the Association Agreement.
5. As part of its general political positioning,
the Ukrainian government
continues to adhere to the policy
of maintaining a relative balance
in its relations with Russia and the
EU (“East” and “West”). From the
105
CASPIAN REPORT, WINTER 2014