Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

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EMIN AKHUNDZADA 114 IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEAL WITH THE WEST AND ITS REGIONAL IMPACTS EMIN AKHUNDZADA ACADEMICS AND RESEARCH COORDINATOR, HASEN
The tension between the West and Iran reached its peak during Ahmadinejad’s presidency. With harsh statements against the US and Israel, Ahmadinejad at various points brought the parties to the brink of war. Relations between Iran and the West significantly deteriorated as a result of the 1979 Iran Islam revolution and the hostage crisis, but things got worse as Iran developed its nuclear programme. The West regarded Iran as a threat to the region, and tried to persuade it to abandon its nuclear operations. However, Iran has consistently claimed that its nuclear operations are being carried out for peaceful means. The tension between the West and Iran reached its peak during Ahmadinejad’s presidency. With harsh statements against the US and Israel, Ahmadinejad at various points brought the parties to the brink of war. Bilateral tensions were reduced and harsh statements were replaced with mutual goodwill gestures when Hasan Rouhani was elected as the new president in August 2013. As a result, a 6-month interim deal on Iran’s nuclear program has been signed between Iran and the G5+1 countries in Geneva. According to the deal, Iran will suspend its nuclear programme to a significant extent, dispose of its 20% enriched uranium, resume uranium enrichment activities only at a rate OBAMA OPPOSES NUCLEAR ARMAMENT, AND IS CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE ARMS RACE IN THE REGION IF IRAN CREATES A REGIONAL SECURITY DILEMMA BY ACQUIRING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. of 5%. In return, the international community will reduce the sanctions around $7 billion. If the parties do not fulfil their obligations within 6 months, an extension of 6 months will be granted. What has pushed the parties to reach a deal after years of tensions BENEFITS OF THE DEAL FOR THE WEST, PARTICULARLY THE US • Obama opposes nuclear armament, and is concerned about a possible arms race in the region if Iran creates a regional security dilemma by acquiring nuclear weapons. • Economic costs for the US as a result of operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are high, and 2008 world economic crisis also caused trouble for the US economy. Thus, the US does not want another war. Moreover, Iran is very different from Iraq, and a possible war with Iran would not only be a major blow for the US economy but would also cause instability in the region. In this case, the US is choosing peace over war. 115 CASPIAN REPORT, WINTER <strong>2014</strong>
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CASPIAN PUBLISHED BY CASPIAN STRATE
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CASPIAN REPORT 2 Almost two decades
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CASPIAN CASPIAN REPORT 4 06 ALEX VA
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ALEX VATANKA 6 THE CAUCASUS AND THE
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ALEX VATANKA 8 In his own words, Ro
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President of Iran Hassan Rouhani. A
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ALEX VATANKA 12 government would be
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ALEX VATANKA 14
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FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION FOR SHAH
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GARETH M. WINROW 18 ers seeking to
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Shah Deniz 2 FID Signing Ceremony G
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GARETH M. WINROW 22 men gas each ye
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GARETH M. WINROW 24 In practice, it
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GARETH M. WINROW 26 The priority fo
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ROBERT M. CUTLER 28 THE ROLE OF THE
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ROBERT M. CUTLER 30 Günther Oettin
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Taner Yildiz, Minister of Energy an
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ROBERT M. CUTLER 34 Bosnia-Herzegov
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ROBERT M. CUTLER turn could seek en
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ROBERT M. CUTLER 38 AT THE SAME TIM
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ROBERT M. CUTLER 40 had been the fi
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 42 UKRAINE’S ENERG
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 44 to lend Ukraine 1
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Maidan Square, Ukraine. ROMAN RUKOM
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 48 economic crisis c
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 50 Successful shale
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 52 develop a LNG ter
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ROMAN RUKOMEDA 54 Additionally, the
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EBRU TURHAN 56 FROM ECONOMY TO DOME
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EBRU TURHAN 58 GERMAN-TURKISH RELAT
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Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayy
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in the sectors of energy and water
Page 66 and 67: EBRU TURHAN 64 (CSU) dropped the us
Page 68 and 69: EBRU TURHAN 66 Director General of
Page 70 and 71: European Central Bank , Germany. EB
Page 72 and 73: TURKISH PETROLEUM MARKET IS RESHAPE
Page 74 and 75: • Removing the obligation of 60 t
Page 76 and 77: Turkish Petroleum Corporation. AYHA
Page 78 and 79: AYHAN ERDEM 76 The supplementary po
Page 80 and 81: AYHAN ERDEM 78 concerning the natio
Page 82 and 83: AYHAN ERDEM 80 trations will be abo
Page 84 and 85: AYHAN ERDEM 82 the Ministry of Scie
Page 86 and 87: ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 84 TURKISH-ARMENI
Page 88 and 89: ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 86 A NEW PERIOD I
Page 90 and 91: James Warlick, Deputy Special Repre
Page 92 and 93: ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 90 THE RAPPROCHEM
Page 94 and 95: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Page 96 and 97: ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 94 region. This i
Page 98 and 99: A monument to the Khojaly victims i
Page 100 and 101: SERGII TOLSTOV 98 THE WEST AND UKRA
Page 102 and 103: SERGII TOLSTOV 100 AFTER TYMOSHENKO
Page 104 and 105: Former President of Ukraine Viktor
Page 106 and 107: SERGII TOLSTOV 104 proposed a way o
Page 108 and 109: SERGII TOLSTOV 106 Emergency parlia
Page 110 and 111: CASPIAN
Page 112 and 113: ENERGY BILL OF TURKEY AND SUSTAINAB
Page 114 and 115: ASSOC. PROF. DR. FATIH MACIT 112 An
Page 118 and 119: EMIN AKHUNDZADA 116 • Given that
Page 120 and 121: EMIN AKHUNDZADA 118 • If Iran cou
Page 122 and 123: MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 120 TURNING THE
Page 124 and 125: MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 122 Black Sea Ha
Page 126 and 127: MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 124 quality of L
Page 128 and 129: MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN Nuri al-Maliki s
Page 130 and 131: LEGAL AND ILLEGAL MONEY TRANSFERS A
Page 132 and 133: FATIH OZBAY 130 A LARGE PART OF THE
Page 134 and 135: Cathedral of Saint Vasily, Russia.
Page 136 and 137: POLO MAGRI 134 THE SOUTHERN CORRIDO
Page 138 and 139: POLO MAGRI 136 THE OPENING OF SOUTH
Page 140 and 141: CASPIAN CALL FOR PAPERS CALL FOR PA
Page 142: www.hazar.org
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Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

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