Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

clear policy on the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem, which
prompted Turkey to take steps to
change the status quo in the region. In
turn, the Azerbaijani side expressed
the view that Turkey launched its proposal
without a clear view of the situation
in and around Nagorno-Karabakh
and the South Caucasus as a whole.
Azerbaijan repeatedly tried to change
the situation by means of military
operations, until 1994, and until
now through negotiations. In 1999,
some agreement could have been
reached. However, the terrorist act
in the Armenian parliament halted
the process: the key actors representing
Armenia in the negotiations were
shot. The third countries, primarily
Russia, are interested in preserving
the current status quo in the region.
Moscow does not have an interest in
the conflict resolution in favour of either
one of the parties. Because of the
inference by external powers, Azerbaijan
cannot resolve the problem.
Therefore, Azerbaijan has pursued
a tactic of economic warfare against
Armenia, namely the embargo and
its exclusion from regional projects.
Critical energy transport corridors as
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and Baku-
Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipelines bypass
ARMENIA IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT, POLITICALLY
AND ECONOMICALLY, ON RUSSIA AND UNABLE TO
INDEPENDENTLY PURSUE ITS NATIONAL INTERESTS.
open seas and lacking in natural resources,
the Armenian economy cannot
survive under these conditions. If
the Turkish border were opened, the
effect of the Azerbaijani sanctions
could be mitigated.
Another factor is that Azerbaijan is
sceptical that opening the borders
will enable Turkey to achieve its goals
towards Armenia. The main reason
for this scepticism is that Armenia
is heavily dependent, politically and
economically, on Russia and unable
to independently pursue its national
interests. The genocide issue is the
main issue not only for Armenia but
also – and to an even greater extent -
for the Armenian Diaspora. Without
active contact with the Diaspora, it is
impossible to change perceptions of
the 1915 events solely through developing
bilateral relations with Armenia.
Neither the Armenian government
nor any national interest groups have
the capacity to influence the Diaspora’s
priorities.
Recent developments have once more
confirmed that Turkey, in order to
achieve its goals towards Armenia
and make progress in the Nagorno-
Karabakh conflict, needs to take into
the account the interest of the third
powers. If this is not achieved, Turkish
initiatives towards solution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will fail,
and as a result, rapprochement with
Armenia will also be delayed.
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CASPIAN REPORT, WINTER 2014
Armenian territories, despite the fact
that this is the shortest and more
economic route. A further example
of Armenia’s isolation from regional
cooperation is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars
railway project. Without access to the