Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

EMIN AKHUNDZADA
116
• Given that the US is scheduled to
withdraw from Afghanistan in the
second half of 2014, it needs Iran’s
support to help fill the gaps that
will emerge in the region after the
withdrawal.
• Illegal organizations emerged in
Syria with the civil war, and the risk
of their expansion to other countries
is of great concern for the US. A significant
number of militants came
from Central Asian Republics to
Syria to fight for Al-Qaida, posing serious
threats to surrounding states.
Iran’s support is essential to bringing
an end to the Syrian civil war and
maintaining a permanent peace.
• US regards Iran as a huge threat to
the region (as well as to Washington)
and believes that it can integrate Iran
into the system and deter it from
supporting illegal organizations.
• A possible deal with Iran may help
resolve other problems in the region,
such as the Israel-Palestine issue.
BENEFITS OF THE DEAL FOR IRAN
• Relations between Iran and the
West were approaching a breaking
point during Ahmadinejad’s presidency,
creating serious risks for Iran.
Iran wanted to avoid the increasing
tension. In this regard, it has been
claimed that Iran is seeking to reduce
tension via the nuclear deal, to
gain time if US attack seems likely, or
to prevent a possible attack.
• Iran has serious economic problems
due to the Western-sponsored
embargo, and also due to its financial
support for the Assad regime during
the Syrian civil war. This directly affected
popular support for the regime,
and threatened its stability. In
order to improve its economic situation
and to eliminate the domestic
political threat to the regime, Iran
needed to establish peace with the
West.
IRAN HAS SERIOUS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS DUE TO THE
WESTERN-SPONSORED EMBARGO, AND ALSO DUE TO
ITS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR THE ASSAD REGIME DURING
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.
• Iran’s energy export revenues of
approximately $100 billion could
not be transferred to Iran due to
sanctions, because Iran’s energy exports
to related countries were only
paid to a local bank in that country’s
currency. This amount corresponds
to roughly 20% of Iran’s GDP. Thus,
Iran wants to reach a deal with the
West so it can have access to its assets
abroad.
• Iran has the 4 th largest oil reserves
and 2 nd largest natural gas reserves
in the world. According to BP statistics,
Iran has a total of 33.6 trillion
cubic meters of natural gas reserves,
and about half of these reserves are
located in the South Pars field. Iran
shares the South Pars natural gas
field with Qatar. While Qatar uses
this field quite efficiently, Iran’s production
rate is relatively low because
technology it will use in production
is licensed by US. As Iran does
not have this technology, it cannot
reach the desired rate of production.
Moreover, oil production in Iran has
significantly declined, as it was unable
to sell oil due to the embargoes,