Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

ROBERT M. CUTLER
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Günther Oettinger currently estimates
that in the long run, the SGC could
provide approximately 100 billion
cubic meters per year (bcm/y) to EU
countries, or a little less than 20% of
current total consumption.
ANOTHER PROPOSAL NOT FORMALLY INCLUDED IN
THE SGC IS THE AZERBAIJAN-GEORGIA-ROMANIA
INTERCONNECTOR (AGRI) PROJECT, WHICH WOULD
TRANSIT AZERBAIJANI NATURAL GAS TO THE KULEVI
TERMINAL ON THE BLACK SEA AND THEN BY TANKER TO
CONSTANTA, ROMANIA.
The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas
Pipeline (commonly known by its
Turkish initials, TANAP) has taken the
place of the Anatolian segment of the
planned Nabucco pipeline. As a joint
Azerbaijani-Turkish project, it does
not fall into the TEN-E framework of
the EU. However, because it essentially
replaces Nabucco’s role in transporting
Azerbaijani gas to Europe would
have done, it is generally included in
references to the SGC and in estimates
of the volumes of gas that the SGC may
transport to Europe.
The ITGI would have comprised the
Interconnector Turkey-Greece (ITG)
and the Interconnector Greece-Italy
(IGI). The first of these has been
constructed, and has been operational
for some time. The anticipated IGI
extension has now been replaced
by the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP),
which was also formally included in
the SGC project.
The White Stream project was a later
addition to the SGC. This now-dormant
project would have transported
quantities of Caspian Basin natural gas
from its arrival in Georgia, under the
Black Sea to Romania. First proposed
in 2005, the original thought was to
transit Ukrainian waters and possibly
to have a pumping station there,
near Crimea. The possibility of gas
delivery to the country itself became
increasingly less likely towards the end
of the 2000s. Plans were redrawn for
an entirely underwater route across
the seabed. Originally conceived as a
mega-project depending on gas from
Turkmenistan, the production and
sale of which it sought to encourage,
it was then scaled down to 8 bcm/y
with the possibility of later scaling up
to 16, 24 and 32 bcm/y as needed. The
discovery of more gas in Azerbaijan’s
offshore provinces in the Caspian Sea
basin made this possible, but in the
end, other proposals multiplied, and
White Stream has been left on the
drawing board.
Another proposal not formally
included in the SGC is the Azerbaijan-
Georgia-Romania Interconnector
(AGRI) project, which would transit
Azerbaijani natural gas to the Kulevi
terminal on the Black Sea and then by
tanker to Constanta, Romania. The gas
could be transported either as liquefied
(LNG) or as compressed natural
gas. A four-way protocol on realizing
the AGRI project was signed in mid-
February 2011 between Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Hungary, and Romania.
Hungary’s participation was taken
as confirmation of the intention
to construct the Arad-Szeged
interconnector between Romania
and Hungary. A “proof of concept”
feasibility study for AGRI in 2010
was successful and produced a cost
estimate of between 1.2 billion and
4.5 billion euros, according to three