Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

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ALEX VATANKA 12 government would be well advised to instead pursue narrow and specific goals that would yield tangible result over grandiose but unrealistic – at least in the short term – and lofty aspirations. MEANWHILE, BY SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES AND AZERBAIJAN, THE IRANIANS CAN FEEL FAR LESS CONCERNED ABOUT THE CAUCASUS AS A POTENTIAL ZONE OF INSTABILITY THAT COULD THREATEN TEHRAN’S OWN INTERESTS. In other words, the government of President Rouhani should be selective in its foreign and regional policy goals. Thus far he has acted in such a manner. On the international stage, Rouhani has already made it clear he wants to repair American-Iranian relations. Closer to home, he has specifically referred to the need to reach out to Saudi Arabia and find ways to reduce tensions, particularly as the two countries are seen as leaders of the Shia and Sunni camps respectively in the sectarian battle that is now raging across so many parts of the Middle East. If he takes a fresh look at the challenges that his country faces, other possibilities do exist for Iranian foreign policy adjustments. THE CASE OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS If a narrow focus and attention to the best returns on investment guides Rouhani’s approach, then the South Caucasus deserves his attention. In this part of the world, Tehran can through a realignment of its policies enhance its political standing, promote its economic objectives and better safeguard its security interests. For too long, Tehran has either meddled in the South Caucasus (specifically Azerbaijan) or simply abdicated (to Russia) its role as a larger neighbour that could play a constructive role in helping the region meet its challenges. In Azerbaijan, a country with close historical and religious ties to Iran, Tehran for too long sought to play the role of the “big brother” with a relentless desire to superimpose its Shia-centric Islamist political model over a Shiamajority country that nonetheless remains secular in its orientation. Certainly the Iranian theocratic political model has little appeal in Azerbaijani society. Still, as far as Baku is concerned, the Rouhani administration has an opportunity to overturn some of Tehran’s past policy mistakes. That was the message from the meeting between President Rouhani and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan in Davos. However, at that meeting Rouhani was also reported to have spoken about a desire on the part of Iran to assist Azerbaijan in its oil and natural gas industries. Expressing a desire for collaboration in any field is commendable but Rouhani and his government can achieve far more vis-à-vis Azerbaijan if they pursue the same narrow and focused approach as they have seemingly begun toward the United States. Instead of homing in on oil and gas cooperation – a field where Baku has already had numerous successes in the last 20 years and has established foreign partnerships – Tehran should introduce new initiatives where its capacity to make a difference can make a difference. One such initiative could be linked to the frozen conflict over Armenian-occupied Nagorno-Karabakh,
President of USA Barack Obama. which has pitted Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other since the late 1980s. By readjusting its stance and acting as an external mediator seeking resolution to the conflict – instead of shadowing a Russian lead which is fundamentally biased in favour of Armenia – Iran can help shake up the status quo. The Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands is in the long-run unsustainable, but Iran can still make a very positive impact on its bilateral relations with Baku if it can demonstrate its ability to pursue genuinely neutral policies in relation to that long-standing conflict. To start with, that requires more Iranian pressure on Yerevan to open itself up to diplomatic resolution and to prevent another round of military clashes with Azerbaijan over the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. THE ARMENIAN OCCUPATION OF AZERBAIJANI LANDS IS IN THE LONG-RUN UNSUSTAINABLE, BUT IRAN CAN STILL MAKE A VERY POSITIVE IMPACT ON ITS BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH BAKU IF IT CAN DEMONSTRATE ITS ABILITY TO PURSUE GENUINELY NEUTRAL POLICIES IN RELATION TO THAT LONG-STANDING CONFLICT. Regardless of the close history that Iran also has with Armenia, the fact remains that it is Azerbaijan that has emerged as the economic engine of the South Caucasus. From an Iranian national interest it is thus Baku that should be prioritized. Put simply, Russia’s unconditional support for Armenia might serve Moscow’s goals in the Caucasus, but it makes little sense for Tehran to pretend that Iranian and Russian interests in this part of the world overlap. Meanwhile, by simultaneously improving relations with the United States 13 CASPIAN REPORT, WINTER <strong>2014</strong>
Page 1: CASPIAN PUBLISHED BY CASPIAN STRATE
Page 4 and 5: CASPIAN REPORT 2 Almost two decades
Page 6 and 7: CASPIAN CASPIAN REPORT 4 06 ALEX VA
Page 8 and 9: ALEX VATANKA 6 THE CAUCASUS AND THE
Page 10 and 11: ALEX VATANKA 8 In his own words, Ro
Page 12 and 13: President of Iran Hassan Rouhani. A
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Page 18 and 19: FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION FOR SHAH
Page 20 and 21: GARETH M. WINROW 18 ers seeking to
Page 22 and 23: Shah Deniz 2 FID Signing Ceremony G
Page 24 and 25: GARETH M. WINROW 22 men gas each ye
Page 26 and 27: GARETH M. WINROW 24 In practice, it
Page 28 and 29: GARETH M. WINROW 26 The priority fo
Page 30 and 31: ROBERT M. CUTLER 28 THE ROLE OF THE
Page 32 and 33: ROBERT M. CUTLER 30 Günther Oettin
Page 34 and 35: Taner Yildiz, Minister of Energy an
Page 36 and 37: ROBERT M. CUTLER 34 Bosnia-Herzegov
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Page 48 and 49: Maidan Square, Ukraine. ROMAN RUKOM
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Page 58 and 59: EBRU TURHAN 56 FROM ECONOMY TO DOME
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in the sectors of energy and water
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EBRU TURHAN 64 (CSU) dropped the us
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EBRU TURHAN 66 Director General of
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European Central Bank , Germany. EB
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TURKISH PETROLEUM MARKET IS RESHAPE
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• Removing the obligation of 60 t
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Turkish Petroleum Corporation. AYHA
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AYHAN ERDEM 76 The supplementary po
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AYHAN ERDEM 78 concerning the natio
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AYHAN ERDEM 80 trations will be abo
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AYHAN ERDEM 82 the Ministry of Scie
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ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 84 TURKISH-ARMENI
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ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 86 A NEW PERIOD I
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James Warlick, Deputy Special Repre
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ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 90 THE RAPPROCHEM
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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
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ROVSHAN IBRAHIMOV 94 region. This i
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A monument to the Khojaly victims i
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SERGII TOLSTOV 98 THE WEST AND UKRA
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SERGII TOLSTOV 100 AFTER TYMOSHENKO
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Former President of Ukraine Viktor
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SERGII TOLSTOV 104 proposed a way o
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SERGII TOLSTOV 106 Emergency parlia
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CASPIAN
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ENERGY BILL OF TURKEY AND SUSTAINAB
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ASSOC. PROF. DR. FATIH MACIT 112 An
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EMIN AKHUNDZADA 114 IRAN’S NUCLEA
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EMIN AKHUNDZADA 116 • Given that
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EMIN AKHUNDZADA 118 • If Iran cou
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MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 120 TURNING THE
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MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 122 Black Sea Ha
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MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN 124 quality of L
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MESUT HAKKI CAŞIN Nuri al-Maliki s
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LEGAL AND ILLEGAL MONEY TRANSFERS A
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FATIH OZBAY 130 A LARGE PART OF THE
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Cathedral of Saint Vasily, Russia.
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POLO MAGRI 134 THE SOUTHERN CORRIDO
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POLO MAGRI 136 THE OPENING OF SOUTH
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CASPIAN CALL FOR PAPERS CALL FOR PA
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Caspian Report - Issue 06 - Winter 2014

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