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1.7. Risks identified in the ARA 2012 and outlook of the situation at the
external borders in 2013
The following risks at the external borders of the EU were identified according to the results
of an annual risk analysis process involving Member State analysts participating in the Frontex
Risk Analysis Network. They represent the main risks identified by the Frontex Risk Analysis
Unit after an Annual Analytical Review with Member State analysts.
The risks presented are a summary of the risks presented in the restricted version of the
Annual Risk Analysis 2012 for the Frontex Management Board. This summary does not contain
references to identified vulnerabilities, nor proposals for recommendations that were
presented to the Frontex Management Board as a basis for their discussions in elaborating the
Programme of Work for 2013.
They are primarily aimed for strategic and long term planning purposes, and require specific
tailored analysis for tactical and operational decisions.
1.7.1. Risk of large and sustained numbers of illegal border-crossings at the
external land and sea border with Turkey
The border between Greece and Turkey is very likely to remain in 2013 among the main areas
for detections of illegal border crossing along the external border, at levels similar to those
reported between 2008 and 2011, i.e. between 40 000 and 57 000 detections per annum.
This area of the external border neighbours Turkey and offers a natural transit bridge with
Asia, which contains many source countries for migrants hoping to illegally cross the border
into the EU. This situation is largely exploited by facilitators, in particular at the land border
between Turkey and Greece. The challenge is ever increasing, as criminal groups continue to
develop their networks and practices across the Greek-Turkish borders.
The majority of migrants are expected to come from Asian countries particularly Afghanistan,
Iran and Pakistan, pushed by poor living conditions at home and pulled by the presence of a
large number of fellow citizens already in the EU, relatively low return risks at this particular
border section compared to other border sections like air borders, rumours spread among
migrants about the benefits available in EU Member States and long-term established
perceptions about the apparent ease of crossing illegally into the EU which is also fed back
from recent successes.
Depending on the political situation, migrants from the Middle East may increasingly join the
flow. In addition, migrants from northern and western Africa, willing to illegally cross the EU
external borders, are expected to increasingly take advantage of Turkish visa policies, that
grant visas to a different set of nationalities than the EU does, and the expansion of Turkish
Airlines, which assists them in transiting through the Turkish air borders and subsequently
offers the opportunity to attempt to enter the EU illegally, either by air or through the
neighbouring land or sea borders. As a result, border-control authorities will increasingly be
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