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Mediterranean route or the Western African route. Larger flows are more likely to develop on
the Central Mediterranean route than on the other two routes, mostly because of its
proximity to Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, where political instability and high unemployment
rates among young people is pushing citizens away from their countries and where there is
evidence of well-organised facilitation networks.
On the Western Mediterranean route, the situation remains of concern because of the
increasing trend of illegal border-crossings reported throughout 2011. According to reported
detections, the situation on the Western African route has been mostly under control since
2008 but remains critically dependant of the implementation of effective return agreements
between Spain and western African countries. Should these agreements be jeopardised,
irregular migration, pushed by high unemployment and poverty, is likely to resume quickly
despite increased surveillance.
The composition of the immigration flow is dependent on the route and the countries of
departure, but includes a large majority of western and North Africans. Mostly economically
driven, irregular migration on these routes is also increasingly a result of the humanitarian
crisis in western and northern African countries. Facilitators are increasingly recruiting their
candidates for illegal border-crossings from the group that is most vulnerable to THB, i.e.
women and children, causing increasing challenges for border control authorities.
1.7.4. Risk of border-control authorities faced with large numbers of people in
search of international protection
Given the currently volatile and unstable security situation in the vicinity of the EU, there is
an increasing risk of political and humanitarian crises in third countries resulting in large
numbers of people in search of international protection being displaced to the land and sea
borders of the EU. The most likely pressures are linked to the situations in North Africa and
the Middle East.
In addition, the situation in western African countries like Nigeria may also trigger flows of
people in search of international protection to the external borders. In addition, facilitators
of illegal border-crossing often recommend that migrants apply for international protection if
detected at the external borders, only to abscond from asylum centres only a few days later.
This threat is predominantly linked to irregular transit migration through the Western Balkan
route and possibly, more sporadically, along the eastern land border. Facilitators are
exploiting the period, often several months, required for assessing asylum applications, and
the lack of a common policy on international protection at the EU level, as part of the modus
operandi proposed in their packages to the migrants. Their illegal activities are also thriving
because of the still insufficient coordination between border-control and other lawenforcement
authorities with asylum authorities.
When applications for international protection are made in large numbers as part of a modus
operandi to illegally enter the EU, it overloads border-control authorities, thus diluting
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