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Eurozone headline
The key eurozone economic indicators, on average,
surprised to the upside for a second consecutive
month during April. All data categories included in
our surprise indicator, except activity data (which
were on average broadly in line with market
expectations) surprised to the upside over the month.
Chart 4: Eurozone Surprise Indicator – Headline
Index
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
SD from mean
Eurozone surveys
Market forecasters continued to underestimate the
pick-up in surveys. Surveys were stronger than
expected for a second consecutive month in April.
Over the past year, surveys have surprised to the
upside eleven times. During April, this mainly
reflected stronger than expected German ZEW and
Ifo, French production outlook and services PMI and
eurozone flash manufacturing PMI.
Chart 5: Eurozone Surprise Indicator –
Biggest Mover: Surveys
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
SD from mean
Eurozone inflation
Inflation data surprised to the upside for a third
consecutive month in April. German PPI and import
prices and Italian PPI and preliminary CPI were
stronger than expected. These offset the downward
surprises in the eurozone HICP and PPI and German
preliminary CPI.
Chart 6: Eurozone Surprise Indicator –
One to Watch: Inflation
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
SD from mean
Gizem Kara/Alan Clarke 7 May 2010
Market Mover
30
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