Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Chart 2: EUR/JPY – the most bearish euro signals are being triggered on EURJPY
EURJPY is triggering
the most euro bearish
signals among the
139
138.51
euro crosses
134.55
134.35
suggesting significant 134
downward pressure.
The break below long
term pivotal support at
the 119.70 level
confirms the bearish
outlook.
We now expect a
decline towards
115.95 and then
112.10.
Source: BNP Paribas
129
124
119
14-Sep-09
129.10
126.90
11-Nov-09
127.45
08-Jan-10
119.70
09-Mar-10
Chart 3: EUR/GBP– targeting longer term pivotal support at 0.8400
EURGBP has
accelerated the recent
down trend following
0.942
0.9410
the break below the
0.8605 support and a
test of the longer term
pivotal support at
0.8400 is now
expected.
A break below 0.8400
will turn the longer
0.922
0.902
0.882
0.9155
0.8835
0.9150
term outlook bearish 0.862
opening the way for a
0.8605
decline towards
0.8095. 0.842
14-Sep-09 11-Nov-09 08-Jan-10 09-Mar-10
Source: BNP Paribas
EURCHF has broken
sharply lower through
the 1.4320 support.
1.520
Chart 4: EUR/CHF – breaking sharply lower
1.5240
1.5140
127.90
06-May-10
0.8865
06-May-10
We now expect some
further losses in the
near-term to target
1.40 and 1.3980,
which also coincides
with the lower
boundary of the
descending channel
that has been in place
since December.
1.500
1.480
1.460
1.440
1.420
1.5015
1.4900
1.4150
1.4465
1.400
14-Sep-09
11-Nov-09
08-Jan-10
09-Mar-10
06-May-10
Source: BNP Paribas
Ian Stannard 30 April 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
66
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com