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Economic Forecasts
GDP
Year 2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 0.4 -2.4 3.2 -3.3 -3.8 -2.6 0.1 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.0
Eurozone 0.5 -4.0 0.9 -5.0 -4.9 -4.1 -2.2 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.0
Japan -1.2 -5.2 2.2 -8.9 -5.7 -5.2 -1.0 2.7 1.7 2.3 1.9
World (2) 3.1 -0.6 4.3 -2.1 -1.7 -0.6 1.8 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.3
Industrial Production
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -2.2 -9.7 4.8 -11.6 -12.9 -9.4 -4.7 2.4 6.3 5.7 4.9
Eurozone -12.5 -3.9 3.9 -18.0 -18.0 0.0 -14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
Japan -3.4 -22.4 16.4 -34.6 -27.8 -20.1 -5.4 26.8 18.9 12.6 9.8
Unemployment Rate
Year
2009 2010
(%) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 5.8 9.3 9.5 7.0 8.2 9.3 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3
Eurozone 7.6 9.4 10.3 8.8 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5
Japan 4.0 5.1 4.7 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5
CPI
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 3.8 -0.4 2.0 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.6
Eurozone 3.3 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7
Japan 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -0.4
Current Account
(% GDP) ’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1) General Government
(% GDP)
’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1)
US -4.9 -2.9 -3.3 US (4) -3.2 -9.9 -10.0
Eurozone -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 Eurozone -2.0 -6.3 -6.8
Japan 3.2 2.8 3.7 Japan -2.6 -9.2 -7.8
Interest Rate Forecasts
Interest Rate (3)
Year
2009
2010
(%) ’08 ’09 ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US
Fed Funds Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
3-month Rate 1.43 0.25 0.45 1.19 0.60 0.29 0.25 0.29 0.30 0.40 0.45
2-year yield 0.77 1.14 1.25 0.80 1.12 0.95 1.14 1.02 0.90 1.00 1.25
10-year yield 2.22 3.84 3.75 2.67 3.54 3.31 3.84 3.83 3.50 3.50 3.75
2y/10y Spread (bp) 145 269 250 186 242 236 269 281 260 250 250
Eurozone
Refinancing Rate 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
3-month Rate 2.89 0.70 1.25 1.51 1.10 0.75 0.70 0.63 0.80 1.10 1.25
2-year yield 1.74 1.37 1.30 1.23 1.38 1.28 1.37 0.97 1.00 1.15 1.30
10-year yield 2.35 3.40 3.10 3.00 3.38 3.23 3.40 3.09 3.00 3.00 3.10
2y/10y Spread (bp) 61 203 180 177 200 195 203 212 200 185 180
Japan
O/N Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
3-month Rate 0.74 0.46 0.40 0.65 0.56 0.54 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.40
2-year yield 0.40 0.15 0.15 0.41 0.32 0.25 0.15 0.18 0.25 0.35 0.40
10-year yield 1.18 1.30 1.65 1.35 1.36 1.31 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.60 1.65
2y/10y Spread (bp) 78 115 150 94 104 106 115 122 115 125 125
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) Country weights used to construct world growth are those in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update
October 2009 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated
Source: BNP Paribas
Market Economics / Interest Rate Strategy 7 May 2010
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