Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Chart 2: EUR/JPY – the most bearish euro signals are being triggered on EURJPY EURJPY is triggering the most euro bearish signals among the 139 138.51 euro crosses 134.55 134.35 suggesting significant 134 downward pressure. The break below long term pivotal support at the 119.70 level confirms the bearish outlook. We now expect a decline towards 115.95 and then 112.10. Source: BNP Paribas 129 124 119 14-Sep-09 129.10 126.90 11-Nov-09 127.45 08-Jan-10 119.70 09-Mar-10 Chart 3: EUR/GBP– targeting longer term pivotal support at 0.8400 EURGBP has accelerated the recent down trend following 0.942 0.9410 the break below the 0.8605 support and a test of the longer term pivotal support at 0.8400 is now expected. A break below 0.8400 will turn the longer 0.922 0.902 0.882 0.9155 0.8835 0.9150 term outlook bearish 0.862 opening the way for a 0.8605 decline towards 0.8095. 0.842 14-Sep-09 11-Nov-09 08-Jan-10 09-Mar-10 Source: BNP Paribas EURCHF has broken sharply lower through the 1.4320 support. 1.520 Chart 4: EUR/CHF – breaking sharply lower 1.5240 1.5140 127.90 06-May-10 0.8865 06-May-10 We now expect some further losses in the near-term to target 1.40 and 1.3980, which also coincides with the lower boundary of the descending channel that has been in place since December. 1.500 1.480 1.460 1.440 1.420 1.5015 1.4900 1.4150 1.4465 1.400 14-Sep-09 11-Nov-09 08-Jan-10 09-Mar-10 06-May-10 Source: BNP Paribas Ian Stannard 30 April 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 66 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Currency Spot Trade Recommendations Date EUR/JPY 116.90 Sell 118.00, stop at 120.00, target 110.00 6 May 2010 EUR/USD 1.2720 Sell 1.2860, stop 1.2960, target 1.2360 6 May 2010 USD/JPY 92.30 Longs from 93.60 stopped at 92.60 27 Apr 2010 TRY/CZK 13.15 Longs from 12.77 achieved the 13.30 target 27 Apr 2010 AUD/USD 0.8925 Short at 0.9280, lower stop to 0.9180, target 0.86 20 Apr 2010 USD/CHF 1.1085 Longs from 1.0530 achieved the 1.11 target 15 Apr 2010 GBP/USD 1.4915 Short at 1.5430, lower stop to 1.5150, target 1.4700 15 Apr 2010 Source: BNP Paribas Ian Stannard 30 April 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 67 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2:
Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4:
UK: all eyes on the election US: re
Page 5 and 6:
Event response The ECB is being ove
Page 7 and 8:
Eurozone Periphery: Compare and Con
Page 9 and 10:
over 20% in Q1) and, last but not l
Page 11 and 12:
Market Stress Charts • Signs of s
Page 13 and 14:
Chart 7: Greek Bank CDS* 900 Greece
Page 15 and 16: • The plan also contains a number
Page 17 and 18: Germany: Downs and Ups • The impa
Page 19 and 20: Retail sales data from month to mon
Page 21 and 22: On inflation, the statement was als
Page 23 and 24: quarterly average of 2.7% in the fi
Page 25 and 26: US Credit: Still the Recovery’s B
Page 27 and 28: Japan: Rising Chance of Sales Tax H
Page 29 and 30: BNP Paribas Surprise Indicator •
Page 31 and 32: UK headline After surprising to the
Page 33 and 34: US: Supply Could Affect Swap Spread
Page 35 and 36: steep curve is typically associated
Page 37 and 38: decline. We continue to maintain ou
Page 39 and 40: Chart 12: 90-119 Day Dlq for FRE 90
Page 41 and 42: the gamma sector for some time now.
Page 43 and 44: EUR: Limited Nervousness at ECB Ten
Page 45 and 46: with the big redemption (EUR 17.7bn
Page 47 and 48: measures are not promptly taken to
Page 49 and 50: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 51 and 52: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 53 and 54: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 55 and 56: What’s the call? It is relatively
Page 57 and 58: Update on FIN SEN and FIN SUB 5/10y
Page 59 and 60: Germany 10y: Within MT falling wedg
Page 61 and 62: Judging Currencies by Liquidity •
Page 63 and 64: type of regulation would reduce mon
Page 65: Euro Dives • The euro is collapsi
Page 69 and 70: Economic Calendar: 7 - 14 May (cont
Page 71 and 72: Key Data Preview Chart 1: US Payrol
Page 73 and 74: Key Data Preview Chart 5: UK Manufa
Page 75 and 76: Key Data Preview Chart 9: French GD
Page 77 and 78: Key Data Preview Chart 13: US Indus
Page 79 and 80: Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar
Page 81 and 82: Central Bank Watch Interest Rate EU
Page 83 and 84: FX Forecasts* USD Bloc Q2 '10 Q3 '1
Page 85: RESEARCH DISCLAIMERS: IMPORTANT DIS
show all

Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?