Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

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Eurozone headline The key eurozone economic indicators, on average, surprised to the upside for a second consecutive month during April. All data categories included in our surprise indicator, except activity data (which were on average broadly in line with market expectations) surprised to the upside over the month. Chart 4: Eurozone Surprise Indicator – Headline Index Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean Eurozone surveys Market forecasters continued to underestimate the pick-up in surveys. Surveys were stronger than expected for a second consecutive month in April. Over the past year, surveys have surprised to the upside eleven times. During April, this mainly reflected stronger than expected German ZEW and Ifo, French production outlook and services PMI and eurozone flash manufacturing PMI. Chart 5: Eurozone Surprise Indicator – Biggest Mover: Surveys Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean Eurozone inflation Inflation data surprised to the upside for a third consecutive month in April. German PPI and import prices and Italian PPI and preliminary CPI were stronger than expected. These offset the downward surprises in the eurozone HICP and PPI and German preliminary CPI. Chart 6: Eurozone Surprise Indicator – One to Watch: Inflation Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean Gizem Kara/Alan Clarke 7 May 2010 Market Mover 30 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
UK headline After surprising to the downside over the past two months, UK economic data, on average, surprised significantly to the upside during April. Weaker than expected surveys and housing data were offset by stronger than expected activity, inflation and labour data. Chart 7: UK Surprise Indicator – Headline Index Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean UK activity After consistently surprising to the downside over the past seven months, activity data surprised to the upside during April. Manufacturing and industrial production as well as the visible and non-EU trade balance were all stronger than market expectations. These more than offset the downward surprises in retail sales and Q1 GDP over the month. Chart 8: UK Surprise Indicator – Biggest Mover: Activity Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean UK inflation Inflation data were stronger than market expectations during April. Over the past year, inflation data have surprised to the upside nine times. All inflation data included in our surprise indicator were stronger than market expectations over the month. Chart 9: UK Surprise Indicator – One to Watch: Inflation Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas SD from mean Gizem Kara/Alan Clarke 7 May 2010 Market Mover 31 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: UK: all eyes on the election US: re
Page 5 and 6: Event response The ECB is being ove
Page 7 and 8: Eurozone Periphery: Compare and Con
Page 9 and 10: over 20% in Q1) and, last but not l
Page 11 and 12: Market Stress Charts • Signs of s
Page 13 and 14: Chart 7: Greek Bank CDS* 900 Greece
Page 15 and 16: • The plan also contains a number
Page 17 and 18: Germany: Downs and Ups • The impa
Page 19 and 20: Retail sales data from month to mon
Page 21 and 22: On inflation, the statement was als
Page 23 and 24: quarterly average of 2.7% in the fi
Page 25 and 26: US Credit: Still the Recovery’s B
Page 27 and 28: Japan: Rising Chance of Sales Tax H
Page 29: BNP Paribas Surprise Indicator •
Page 33 and 34: US: Supply Could Affect Swap Spread
Page 35 and 36: steep curve is typically associated
Page 37 and 38: decline. We continue to maintain ou
Page 39 and 40: Chart 12: 90-119 Day Dlq for FRE 90
Page 41 and 42: the gamma sector for some time now.
Page 43 and 44: EUR: Limited Nervousness at ECB Ten
Page 45 and 46: with the big redemption (EUR 17.7bn
Page 47 and 48: measures are not promptly taken to
Page 49 and 50: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 51 and 52: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 53 and 54: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 55 and 56: What’s the call? It is relatively
Page 57 and 58: Update on FIN SEN and FIN SUB 5/10y
Page 59 and 60: Germany 10y: Within MT falling wedg
Page 61 and 62: Judging Currencies by Liquidity •
Page 63 and 64: type of regulation would reduce mon
Page 65 and 66: Euro Dives • The euro is collapsi
Page 67 and 68: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 69 and 70: Economic Calendar: 7 - 14 May (cont
Page 71 and 72: Key Data Preview Chart 1: US Payrol
Page 73 and 74: Key Data Preview Chart 5: UK Manufa
Page 75 and 76: Key Data Preview Chart 9: French GD
Page 77 and 78: Key Data Preview Chart 13: US Indus
Page 79 and 80: Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar
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Central Bank Watch Interest Rate EU
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FX Forecasts* USD Bloc Q2 '10 Q3 '1
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RESEARCH DISCLAIMERS: IMPORTANT DIS
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