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Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Japan UK Sweden Core CPI SA Core CPI NSA Headline CPI RPI CPI CPIF Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y 2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9 2010 (1) 99.3 - -1.0 99.3 - -1.0 114.3 - 3.1 222.4 - 4.1 302.9 - 1.1 195.1 - 2.0 2011 (1) 98.8 - -0.5 98.9 - -0.5 116.2 - 1.7 228.9 - 2.9 310.5 - 2.5 198.0 - 1.5 Q3 2009 99.9 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6 Q4 2009 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3 Q1 2010 99.7 - -1.3 99.3 - -1.2 112.9 - 3.2 219.3 - 4.0 301.2 - 1.0 194.0 - 2.6 Q2 2010 (1) 99.4 - -1.1 99.4 - -1.1 114.2 - 3.3 222.2 - 4.5 302.3 - 0.9 195.1 - 2.1 Q3 2010 (1) 98.9 - -1.0 99.2 - -0.9 114.6 - 3.0 223.4 - 4.2 302.5 - 1.0 194.9 - 1.7 Q4 2010 (1) 99.2 - -0.5 99.4 - -0.5 115.3 - 2.9 224.9 - 3.7 305.4 - 1.4 196.5 - 1.7 Q1 2011 (1) 99.1 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 115.2 - 2.0 226.1 - 3.1 305.5 - 1.4 196.0 - 1.0 Q2 2011 (1) 98.9 - -0.5 98.9 - -0.5 116.2 - 1.7 228.6 - 2.9 309.6 - 2.4 197.7 - 1.3 Jul 09 100.0 -0.2 -2.2 100.1 -0.2 -2.2 110.9 -0.1 1.8 213.4 0.0 -1.4 298.8 -0.5 -0.9 191.1 -0.2 1.8 Aug 09 99.8 -0.2 -2.4 100.1 0.0 -2.4 111.4 0.5 1.6 214.4 0.5 -1.3 299.4 0.2 -0.8 191.5 0.2 1.9 Sep 09 99.8 0.0 -2.3 100.2 0.1 -2.3 111.5 0.1 1.1 215.3 0.4 -1.4 300.4 0.3 -1.6 192.3 0.4 1.4 Oct 09 99.7 -0.1 -2.3 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 111.7 0.2 1.5 216.0 0.3 -0.8 301.1 0.3 -1.5 193.0 0.3 1.9 Nov 09 99.8 0.1 -1.7 99.9 -0.2 -1.7 112.0 0.3 1.9 216.6 0.3 0.3 301.0 0.0 -0.7 193.0 0.0 2.3 Dec 09 99.7 -0.1 -1.3 99.8 -0.1 -1.3 112.6 0.5 2.8 218.0 0.6 2.4 301.7 0.2 0.9 193.5 0.2 2.7 Jan 10 99.6 -0.1 -1.3 99.2 -0.6 -1.3 112.4 -0.2 3.4 217.9 0.0 3.7 299.8 -0.6 0.6 193.0 -0.2 2.6 Feb 10 99.8 0.2 -1.2 99.2 0.0 -1.2 112.9 0.4 3.0 219.2 0.6 3.7 301.6 0.6 1.2 194.2 0.6 2.7 Mar 10 99.8 0.0 -1.2 99.5 0.3 -1.2 113.5 0.5 3.4 220.7 0.7 4.4 302.3 0.2 1.2 194.7 0.3 2.5 Apr 10 (1) 99.6 -0.2 -1.2 99.5 0.0 -1.2 114.0 0.4 3.5 221.6 0.4 4.8 302.8 0.2 1.2 195.1 0.2 2.4 May 10 (1) 99.4 -0.2 -1.1 99.4 -0.1 -1.1 114.3 0.3 3.3 222.2 0.2 4.4 302.0 -0.3 0.8 195.0 -0.1 2.1 Jun 10 (1) 99.2 -0.2 -1.0 99.3 -0.1 -1.0 114.4 0.0 3.0 222.8 0.3 4.4 302.2 0.1 0.7 195.0 0.0 1.9 Jul 10 (1) 99.0 -0.2 -1.0 99.1 -0.2 -1.0 114.1 -0.2 2.9 222.6 -0.1 4.3 300.7 -0.5 0.6 194.2 -0.4 1.6 Aug 10 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.9 99.2 0.1 -0.9 114.8 0.7 3.1 223.7 0.5 4.3 302.5 0.6 1.0 194.5 0.2 1.6 Sep 10 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 99.2 0.0 -1.0 114.8 0.0 3.0 224.0 0.1 4.0 304.4 0.6 1.3 195.9 0.7 1.8 Oct 10 (1) 99.2 0.4 -0.5 99.6 0.4 -0.5 115.1 0.2 3.0 224.4 0.2 3.9 304.4 0.0 1.1 196.5 0.3 1.8 Nov 10 (1) 99.2 0.0 -0.6 99.3 -0.3 -0.6 115.2 0.1 2.9 224.6 0.1 3.7 306.1 0.5 1.7 196.6 0.1 1.9 Dec 10 (1) 99.1 -0.1 -0.6 99.2 -0.1 -0.6 115.7 0.4 2.7 225.6 0.5 3.5 305.7 -0.1 1.3 196.5 -0.1 1.5 Updated Next Release Apr 30 Apr CPI (May 28) May 06 Apr CPI (May 18) May 06 Apr CPI (May 11) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y) Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Prices are expected to continue falling but the pace of decline is easing as the economy recovers. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas CPI inflation surprised again to the upside in March, with strength widespread across components. We now expect inflation to remain above target for the remainder of the year. Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 7 May 2010 Market Mover 50 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Canada Norway Australia CPI Core CPI Headline CPI Core CPI Core Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y 2009 114.4 0.3 113.6 1.8 125.7 2.2 118.4 2.6 167.8 - 1.8 - - 3.7 2010 (1) 116.2 1.5 115.3 1.5 128.7 2.3 120.2 1.5 173.3 - 3.2 - - 2.7 2011 (1) 117.9 1.5 116.8 1.3 131.2 2.0 122.5 1.9 179.0 - 3.3 - - 2.9 Q3 2009 114.7 0.5 -0.9 113.9 1.2 1.6 125.8 0.0 1.8 118.5 0.0 2.4 168.6 1.0 1.3 - - 3.5 Q4 2009 114.9 0.6 0.8 114.4 1.9 1.6 126.6 0.6 1.4 119.3 0.7 2.3 169.5 0.5 2.1 - - 3.4 Q1 2010 115.4 2.0 1.6 114.9 1.6 1.9 128.4 1.4 2.9 119.4 0.1 2.0 171.0 0.9 2.9 - - 3.1 Q2 2010 (1) 116.0 1.9 1.2 115.2 1.1 1.5 128.9 0.4 2.4 120.3 0.8 1.5 172.3 0.8 3.2 - - 2.7 Q3 2010 (1) 116.5 1.6 1.5 115.5 1.1 1.4 128.3 -0.5 2.0 120.2 -0.1 1.4 174.1 1.0 3.3 - - 2.5 Q4 2010 (1) 116.8 1.3 1.7 115.8 1.0 1.2 129.2 0.7 2.0 120.8 0.4 1.2 175.5 0.8 3.5 - - 2.6 Q1 2011 (1) 117.3 1.6 1.6 116.2 1.5 1.2 129.5 0.3 0.9 121.1 0.2 1.4 176.8 0.7 3.3 - - 2.7 Q2 2011 (1) 117.7 1.3 1.5 116.7 1.5 1.3 131.0 1.2 1.7 122.5 1.2 1.8 178.1 0.7 3.3 - - 2.9 Updated Next Release Apr 23 Apr CPI (May 21) May 04 Apr CPI (May 10) Apr 28 Q2 CPI (Jul 28) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 8: Canadian Total vs. Core CPI Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Recent gains in house prices point to higher CPI shelter, but the still strong CAD is expected to depress the prices of goods. In addition, wage pressures continue to ease sharply, pointing to subdued inflation overall. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas In the near term, inflation pressures should remain muted. However, with the economy growing at an above-trend pace and employment picking up quickly, it will not be long before the limited slack in the economy is used up, implying upside inflation pressure. CPI Data Calendar for the Coming Week BNPP Day GMT Economy Indicator Previous F’cast Consensus Comment Mon 10/05 08:00 Norway CPI (nsa) m/m : Apr 0.5% -0.3% -0.2% 08:00 CPI (nsa) y/y : Apr 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 08:00 CPI-ATE (nsa) y/y : Apr 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Tue 11/05 06:00 Germany CPI (Final) m/m : Apr -0.1% (p) -0.1% -0.1% 06:00 CPI (Final) y/y : Apr 1.0% (p) 1.0% 1.0% 06:00 HICP (Final) m/m : Apr -0.1% (p) -0.1% n/a 06:00 HICP (Final) y/y : Apr 1.0% (p) 1.0% n/a 07:30 Sweden CPI (nsa) m/m : Apr 0.2% 0.2% n/a 07:30 CPI (nsa) y/y : Apr 1.2% 1.2% n/a 07:30 CPIF m/m : Apr 0.3% 0.2% n/a 07:30 CPIF y/y : Apr 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 07:30 Neths CPI m/m : Apr 1.2% 0.2% n/a 07:30 CPI y/y : Apr 1.0% 1.0% n/a Wed 12/05 06:45 France CPI m/m : Apr 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Up Again 06:45 CPI y/y : Apr 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 06:45 HICP y/y : Apr 0.5% 0.3% n/a 06:45 HICP y/y : Apr 1.7% 1.9% n/a 06:45 Ex-Tobacco CPI (Final, nsa) : Apr 119.58 119.97 n/a Fri 14/05 07:00 Spain CPI m/m : Apr 1.1% 1.1% n/a 07:00 CPI y/y : Apr 1.6% 1.5% n/a 08:00 Italy CPI (Final) m/m : Apr 0.4% (p) 0.4% n/a 08:00 CPI (Final) y/y : Apr 1.5% (p) 1.5% n/a 08:00 HICP (Final) m/m : Apr 0.9% (p) 0.9% n/a 08:00 HICP (Final) y/y : Apr 1.6% (p) 1.6% n/a Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 7 May 2010 Market Mover 51 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: UK: all eyes on the election US: re
Page 5 and 6: Event response The ECB is being ove
Page 7 and 8: Eurozone Periphery: Compare and Con
Page 9 and 10: over 20% in Q1) and, last but not l
Page 11 and 12: Market Stress Charts • Signs of s
Page 13 and 14: Chart 7: Greek Bank CDS* 900 Greece
Page 15 and 16: • The plan also contains a number
Page 17 and 18: Germany: Downs and Ups • The impa
Page 19 and 20: Retail sales data from month to mon
Page 21 and 22: On inflation, the statement was als
Page 23 and 24: quarterly average of 2.7% in the fi
Page 25 and 26: US Credit: Still the Recovery’s B
Page 27 and 28: Japan: Rising Chance of Sales Tax H
Page 29 and 30: BNP Paribas Surprise Indicator •
Page 31 and 32: UK headline After surprising to the
Page 33 and 34: US: Supply Could Affect Swap Spread
Page 35 and 36: steep curve is typically associated
Page 37 and 38: decline. We continue to maintain ou
Page 39 and 40: Chart 12: 90-119 Day Dlq for FRE 90
Page 41 and 42: the gamma sector for some time now.
Page 43 and 44: EUR: Limited Nervousness at ECB Ten
Page 45 and 46: with the big redemption (EUR 17.7bn
Page 47 and 48: measures are not promptly taken to
Page 49: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 53 and 54: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 55 and 56: What’s the call? It is relatively
Page 57 and 58: Update on FIN SEN and FIN SUB 5/10y
Page 59 and 60: Germany 10y: Within MT falling wedg
Page 61 and 62: Judging Currencies by Liquidity •
Page 63 and 64: type of regulation would reduce mon
Page 65 and 66: Euro Dives • The euro is collapsi
Page 67 and 68: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 69 and 70: Economic Calendar: 7 - 14 May (cont
Page 71 and 72: Key Data Preview Chart 1: US Payrol
Page 73 and 74: Key Data Preview Chart 5: UK Manufa
Page 75 and 76: Key Data Preview Chart 9: French GD
Page 77 and 78: Key Data Preview Chart 13: US Indus
Page 79 and 80: Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar
Page 81 and 82: Central Bank Watch Interest Rate EU
Page 83 and 84: FX Forecasts* USD Bloc Q2 '10 Q3 '1
Page 85: RESEARCH DISCLAIMERS: IMPORTANT DIS

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