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Key Data Preview
Chart 11: US Trade Deficit Components
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
USD bn Mar (f) Feb Jan Dec
Merchandise: -52.3 -51.3 -49.4 -51.9
Services: 11.8 11.6 12.4 12.0
Total: -40.5 -39.7 -37.0 -39.9
BNP Paribas Forecast: Further Widening
US: International Trade (March)
Release Date: Wednesday 12 May
The nominal US trade deficit is expected to widen to
USD 40.5bn in March from USD 39.7bn in February. A
small amount of the widening is likely to be nominal and
owes to the fact that import prices rose a little faster than
export prices. In addition, we expect the real deficit to
widen as imports probably rose to meet strong production
and consumer demand in March. A modest decline in oil
imports will partially offset strength in other categories. The
number will have implications for GDP growth as the
estimate for Q1 included an assumption for March trade.
The widening we expect would be in line with the modest
weight of trade in Q1 GDP growth reflected in the advance
estimate.
Key Point:
The nominal US trade deficit is expected to widen
again in March owing to strength in imports.
Chart 12: US Retail Sales in Gradual Recovery
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
% m/m Apr (f) Mar Feb Jan
Retail sales -0.1 1.9 0.5 0.5
Ex-autos 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6
Key Point:
Sales of most products remain healthy but vehicle
and gasoline sales are in retreat.
BNP Paribas Forecast: Auto Sales Fall in April
US: Retail Sales (April)
Release Date: Friday 14 May
After soaring in March when generous discounts on vehicle
prices boosted vehicle sales and virtually all other
consumer goods performed strongly, consumers paused in
April. Sales are forecast to decline 0.1% in April. The
monthly pattern of sales in the past nine months has been
one of an outsized m/m gain usually associated with public
or private sales promotions followed by one or two months
of lacklustre sales activity. The March and April sales
performance again appears to fit this pattern. Vehicle sales
are forecast to slump, falling by an expected 2.0% as unit
volume sales decreased by 4.8% after jumping 13.5% in
March. Retail sales ex vehicles are forecast to increase by
a miniscule 0.2% in April. Gasoline prices fell again in April,
this time by an estimated 2.6% after seasonal adjustment.
Consequently, sales ex autos and gasoline are forecast to
rise by 0.4% compared with 0.7% in March. Sales at
department stores and apparel retailers are forecast to rise
by 0.5%, approximately the same pace as in March. Sales
at building materials stores should continue their robust
revival, increasing by an estimated 2.5% after sales
jumped by 3.1% in March. Sales are expected to be mildly
positive in food, health care, sporting goods and
electronics.
Market Economics 7 May 2010
Market Mover
76
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