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Chapter 31CHALLENGES IN AGENT BASED SOCIALSIMULATION OF MULTILATERALNEGOTIATIONScott MossCentre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan UniveristyAbstractThis paper is an interim report on the development of an analysis of negotiatingpositions and strategies in a complex environmental management situation. Thereare seven categories of negotiating parties with many issues to be resolved. Eachissue could be resolved in a large number of ways. An abstract model thatcaptures the structure of the negotiations is reported. Simulations suggest that,while bilateral negotiations readily reach agreement, multilateral negotiations donot. The way forward for both modelling a the design of negotiation procedureswill require historical evidence about successful multilateral negotiations.1. IntroductionIt is not hard to find examples of failed negotiations. Recently, we haveseen the failure of attempts to build on the Kyoto agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the breakdown of the Oslo Accord under which Israel andPalestine were moving towards a peaceful settlement of their differences, thefailure of OECD members to agree on trade liberalisation measures, the haltingprogress of the Northern Ireland settlement under the terms of the Good FridayAgreement.At the same time, there are clearly many examples of successful negotiationthat form part of the small change of everyday life. In many households,partners easily agree on what they shall have for dinner or how they shallspend the evening or weekend. More momentously, couples agree to marryor cohabit. The negotiations of transactions in houses are sometimes difficultbut frequently resolved. Even the distribution of assets in the course of divorceproceedings is regularly achieved by agreement between the partners to thedissolving marriage.