TRANSPORTATION - BTS - Bureau of Transportation Statistics

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Table 1-1Forecasts Past and Future1975Actual1990Colemanforecast1990Actual2000Estimated2025Forecast 13Transportation ContextPopulation (millions) 1GNP (constant 1975 $, billions) 2GNP Per Capita (1975 $) 2GDP (constant 2000 $, billions) 3215$1,598$7,417NA247$2,830$11,457NA249$2,409$9,675NA275$3,049$11,087$9,942338$5,486$16,240$18,258Passenger TransportationPassenger-Miles (billions) 4Passenger-Miles Per Capita 4Licensed Drivers (millions) 5Vehicles (millions) 62,56011,8811301383,85015,6001611703,94615,8471671935,03618,3131902198,43824,979243262Freight Transportation 7Total Ton-Miles (millions) 2,285,000Rail*754,252Water (domestic ton-miles) 565,984Water (domestic and foreign tons) 1,695Truck (intercity)454,000Air3,470Pipeline507,0004,394,7061,845,7771,010,782NA703,1538,789834,9943,196,0001,033,969833,5442,164735,0009,064584,0003,959,4321,416,446763,5402,4531,130,13215,904633,4105,098,8881,484,802NA3,4292,121,83733,925797,950Safety 8Transportation fatalities49,21445,50047,24842,60040,300Air Pollution 9CO (millions of tons)NO x (millions of tons)Greenhouse gas emissions 1085.279.45350.0027.008.82NA61.188.51420.0050.488.66500.0024.247.98600.00Energy 11Btu 12 (trillions)16,99816,70024,07025,20036,600* The FRA forecasts a two percent average annual growth rate for the 2000-2025 period. This translates into 2.4 trillionton-miles in 2025.1Population projections are taken from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual Projections of the TotalResident Population as of July 1: Middle Series Projections for 2000 and 2025.NA = not available.The Clean Air Act of 1970 had introduced vehicle emission standards and local plans formeeting national ambient air quality standards to be administered by a new agency—theEnvironmental Protection Agency. The Federal Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980issued a report in 1976 recommending fuel consumption standards for a new vehicle fleet whiledealing with often conflicting requirements to preserve personal mobility, reduce emissions, andenhance safety. Many public research efforts were launched after 1973, focusing on alternativefuel technologies. It was for these reasons, among others, that a national document like Trendsand Choices would have a special section devoted to the automobile.Issues of expanding safety regulation and economic deregulation of common carriers for bothpassengers and freight were at the forefront of policymaking. American railroads were inserious difficulty with rates of return that, at best, did not permit adequate investment. Amtrakhad been created in 1970 as part of a divestiture process. Conrail had just been created from afamily of bankrupt Eastern and Midwestern railroads. Congress was also consideringlegislation to reduce the economic regulatory burdens imposed on carriers by the InterstateCommerce Commission (ICC), which oversaw rail, truck, and intercity bus activities; and theCivil Aeronautics Board (CAB), which oversaw air passenger and freight activities. The U.S.maritime industry was in a long decline from its once-dominant position in the world.Thus, at the time Trends and Choices was issued in 1977, every sector of the transportation systemfaced significant challenges; however, unlike today, system capacity was not a major issue.1-8
2Forecasts for GNP are based on 1975 through 1999 data, using log linear (Holt) exponential smoothingmodel, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.3Forecasts for GDP are based on 1929 through 1999 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing,parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.4Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parametersoptimized through SAS/ETS software.5Forecasts are based on 1949 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parametersoptimized through SAS/ETS software.6Forecasts for vehicles are based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing,parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software.7Forecasts for total ton-miles are an aggregate of the individual forecasts by mode. Forecasts for rail ton-milesare based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parameters optimizedthrough SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for water ton-miles are based on two forecast models: log dampedtrend exponential smoothing based on 1990 through 1997 data, and log simple exponential smoothing basedon 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights.Forecasts for truck ton-miles are based on two forecast models: linear trend based on 1990 through 1997 data,and double (Brown) exponential smoothing based on 1960 through 1995 data in five year increments; the twoforecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts for air ton-miles are based on two forecast models:linear trend based on 1990 through 1998 data, and damped trend exponential smoothing based on 1960through 1995 data in five year increments; the two forecasts are combined with equal weights. Forecasts forpipeline ton-miles are based on 1990 through 1997 data using log linear trend. All forecast model parametersoptimized through SAS/ETS software.8Forecasts are based on 1990 through 1998 data, using damped trend exponential smoothing, parametersoptimized through SAS/ETS software.9Forecasts for CO are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using log linear trend parameters optimized throughSAS/ETS software. Forecasts for NOx are based on 1985 through 1997 data, using double (Brown)exponential smoothing, parameters optimized through SAS/ETS software. Forecasts for greenhouse gasemissions are based on expert opinion.10Millions of metric tons of carbon equivalent, excluding bunker fuels.11Forecasts based on 1990 through 1997 data, using double (Brown) exponential smoothing, parametersoptimized through SAS/ETS software.12Btu: British thermal unit.13The 2025 forecasts are purely statistical. For sources of data used in these forecasts see page 1-32.As the Last Quarter Century Unfolded . . .Perhaps the centerpiece of transportation policy over the last 25 years has been the economicderegulation of aviation, trucking, intercity buses, railroads, and, recently, the ocean shippingindustry. These actions produced profound impacts not only on the structure of theseindustries, but also—because of enhanced competition—on their performance rates, fares, andquality of service.Airlines and railroads continue to experience major consolidations through mergers,alliances, and buyouts. Lowered entry barriers have allowed new small air carriers,thousands of small trucking companies, and regional intercity bus companies to offerservices, and have brought about the resurgence of regional and short-line railroads. At thesame time, enhanced competition within each industry has lowered fares and freight rates.Growth brought about by deregulation has provided unprecedented levels of mobility andcontributed to the enormous economic prosperity of the last decade. Since 1975, passengermilesof travel have nearly doubled, just as economic production has nearly doubled over thesame period. Yet the number of transportation fatalities continues to decline, and mostmeasures of air pollution/emissions have declined as well. Energy use has risen; but withgains in energy efficiency, cars now get close to 33 percent more miles per gallon than they did25 years ago.1-9
Page 1: THE CHANGING FACE OF
Page 4 and 5: All material contained in this repo
Page 6 and 7: AcknowledgmentsU.S. Department of T
Page 9 and 10: Table of ContentsChapter 1—Vision
Page 11: Chapter 6—Technology ............
Page 14 and 15: change. Secretary Slater challenged
Page 16 and 17: A Chronology of Vision and Vigilanc
Page 18 and 19: January 1999New Rule Revising USDOT
Page 22 and 23: Technology has played a critical ro
Page 24 and 25: Today, highway vehicle-miles travel
Page 26 and 27: conventional classroom with the adv
Page 28 and 29: than predicted. The large differenc
Page 30 and 31: In 1975, the nation saw nearly 50,0
Page 32 and 33: FAA and NASA: Working Together on A
Page 34 and 35: traffic and more time with families
Page 36 and 37: operations, maintenance, and mannin
Page 38 and 39: EnergyIn 1975, the United States co
Page 40 and 41: General Motors has manufacturing fa
Page 42 and 43: immigration and drug smuggling by s
Page 44 and 45: This report is organized around six
Page 47: chapter 2Growth, Deregulation,and I
Page 50 and 51: Figure 2-2Economic Growth in the Un
Page 52 and 53: Growth of the Transportation System
Page 54 and 55: Figure 2-6Vehicle-Miles Traveled on
Page 56 and 57: Box 2-1ISTEA/TEA-21The Intermodal S
Page 58 and 59: Box 2-3TelecommutingEmerging techno
Page 60 and 61: Figure 2-11Urban Rail Systems in th
Page 62 and 63: Figure 2-12Transit Ridership: 1975-
Page 64 and 65: the Gulf Coast Corridor, New York
Page 66 and 67: Air Traffic Performance-Based Organ
Page 68 and 69: Figure 2-17U.S. Domestic and Intern
Page 70 and 71:
Box 2-6Higher Profits for U.S. Airl
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Figure 2-21Regional/Commuter Passen
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Figure 2-24Fixed-Wing Piston Aircra
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The FAA, in cooperationwith NASA, i
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LaunchesIn 1999, narrow-body aircra
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Millions of short tonsFigure 2-34U.
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Table 2-1U.S. Oceangoing Merchant M
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Figure 2-39Top 25 U.S. Container Po
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Figure 2-41U.S. Total Waterborne Co
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Significant deregulation legislatio
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the curtailed service in rural area
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Figure 2-45Railroad Network Showing
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direct flights to destinations and
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Figure 2-47International and Domest
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asis between shippers and carriers.
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Figure 2-48Total Ton-Miles of Freig
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Japan and Korea are still our major
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This shift from a “push” to a
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We may have to consider workforce-r
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Logistics Management and Distributi
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chapter 3Safety“ There is need fo
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Figure 3-1Total Fatalities in All M
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7. do a better job of data collecti
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The USDOT human factors research in
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Figure 3-4Total Traffic Fatalities:
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Vehicle Rollover and Size Compatibi
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Box 3-2Pedestrian and Bicycle Trips
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Figure 3-9Alcohol-Related Traffic F
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Under TEA-21, some portion of feder
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Child Restraints: Standards for chi
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Demographic Characteristics (age)In
Page 134 and 135:
Figure 3-18Crash Rate per 100,000 L
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Road CharacteristicsSafer Roads: Si
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Together, these systems provide an
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Automation of enforcement efforts
Page 142 and 143:
By the mid-1980s, with deregulation
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Transit SafetyIn 1975, transit, lik
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Figure 3-28Total Train Incidents: 1
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Figure 3-31Rail-Related Fatality Ra
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Figure 3-34Number of Highway-Rail G
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Figure 3-35Fatal Commercial Air Tra
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In the early 1970s, the aviation in
Page 156 and 157:
The program was enhanced by an agre
Page 158 and 159:
Box 3-10 continued2,000 older, larg
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Figure 3-41Recreational Boating Acc
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systems for steering andmachinery m
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In addition to search and rescue ac
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communities with access to the info
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are growing. Smart pigs will be inc
Page 170 and 171:
Regulations are issued by the USDOT
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Keys to the FutureA number of curre
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References23 CFR Part 1313. U.S. De
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U.S. Department of Transportation (
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_____. 2000c. Office of Investigati
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GlobalizationIn the last quarter-ce
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The Phenomenon of GlobalizationDuri
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Figure 4-4Foreign Direct Investment
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Mitsubishi Motor Sales of America,
Page 189 and 190:
Table 4-4“Domestic” Vehicles Bu
Page 191 and 192:
Table 4-5Top Selling Cars and Truck
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The European Union (EU) achieved fu
Page 195 and 196:
Figure 4-6Open Skies Agreements wit
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Figure 4-8Foreign Residents Visitin
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The record growth of world travel h
Page 201 and 202:
Figure 4-11Hull Loss Accident Rates
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integrated air and truck service. A
Page 205 and 206:
traffic, will likely result in the
Page 207 and 208:
Figure 4-18World Shipping Deliverie
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The world merchant fleet in 1975 co
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By 2025, U.S. ports must be prepare
Page 213 and 214:
Figure 4-26Merchandise Exports to C
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through Laredo, Texas, increased 24
Page 217 and 218:
approved for partnerships that woul
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Japan Automobile Manufacturers Asso
Page 221:
U.S. Department of Transportation (
Page 225 and 226:
chapter 5People, Energy, andthe Env
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Table 5-1Population and Passenger T
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carpools are now really family acti
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Figure 5-5Household Vehicle Ownersh
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Figure 5-8Commuting Flow: 1960-9045
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Box 5-2Access to Transportation for
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Figure 5-12Mode of Transportation b
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Figure 5-16Long-Distance Trip Makin
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Figure 5-18Estimated Percentage of
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transportation’s share of U.S. pe
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Figure 5-21Changes in the Energy In
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loss to the U.S. economy is equal t
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States’ gas hydrate resources alo
Page 251 and 252:
Box 5-4Environmental JusticeCommuni
Page 253 and 254:
Despite dramatic reductions in air
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Figure 5-27Particulate Emissions: 1
Page 257 and 258:
cleaner industrial and electrical g
Page 259 and 260:
Because transportation greenhouse g
Page 261 and 262:
Other fuels show less promise at th
Page 263 and 264:
The advent of increased environment
Page 265 and 266:
eduction programs will be highly su
Page 267 and 268:
A 1980s study estimated that 37 per
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and if we remain vigilant, we could
Page 271 and 272:
Invasive Species: Transportation in
Page 273 and 274:
Box 5-11Clinton-Gore Livable Commun
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Organization for Economic Cooperati
Page 277:
_____. 2000a. National Air Quality
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chapter 6TechnologyDramatic develop
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U.S. and Allied forces with accurat
Page 285 and 286:
the base station to monitor the ent
Page 287 and 288:
The roots of ITS predate the establ
Page 289 and 290:
Figure 6-36-16Projected The Largest
Page 291 and 292:
Figure 6-4Deployment of Traffic Sig
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payment systems becomeintegrated wi
Page 295 and 296:
Collision Avoidance and Warning Sys
Page 297 and 298:
Computer dispatched paratransit veh
Page 299 and 300:
Box 6-5Types of High-Speed Ground T
Page 301 and 302:
Figure 6-16 6-10Projected Growth in
Page 303 and 304:
Box 6-6 continuedIntelligent Railro
Page 305 and 306:
military, and general aviation) to
Page 307 and 308:
(“independent”) radars and seco
Page 309 and 310:
USDOT, FAAUsing the Enhanced Traffi
Page 311 and 312:
national deployment and as users eq
Page 313 and 314:
Airport complexes (Reagan National,
Page 315 and 316:
The methods used to gather and dist
Page 317 and 318:
commodities, but intelligent contro
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chapter 7National Security“In the
Page 322 and 323:
The nation’s ability to meet the
Page 324 and 325:
Figure 7-1National Defense Reserve
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The Strategic Highway Network (STRA
Page 328 and 329:
Figure 7-4Worldwide International T
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Figure 7-9Terrorist Attacks Against
Page 332 and 333:
These acts of piracy accounted for
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Keys to the FutureTerrorism is a gr
Page 336 and 337:
Box 7-2Aviation Security TrainingPr
Page 338 and 339:
threat in the mid-1970s—the gover
Page 340 and 341:
Threats to Maritime SecurityOur Nat
Page 342 and 343:
Latin America and the Carribean Bas
Page 344 and 345:
______. 1999. America’s Merchant
Page 346 and 347:
Figure 2-41 U.S. Total Waterborne C
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Figure 5-1 Dependence Ratio: 1950-2
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appendix BAcronyms and Initialisms3
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LCDLEOLNGLPGLTLLTVsMaglevMARADMERCO
Page 355 and 356:
appendix CGlossaryAir control facil
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Commuter air carrier: A small certi
Page 359 and 360:
Geostationary orbit: Any orbit at a
Page 361 and 362:
Loran: An electronic navigational s
Page 363 and 364:
Seat-miles: The aircraft-miles flow
Page 365:
Vessel feeder services: Cargo to/fr
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