TRANSPORTATION - BTS - Bureau of Transportation Statistics

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Technology has played a critical role in enabling change. Duringthe past quarter century, the aviation system has moved tosatellite-based communications, navigation, and surveillancesystems. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology hasprovided major advances in positioning accuracy for maritimeshipping, railroads, and highway vehicles as well. Cars are nolonger controlled by purely mechanical devices, as they were in1975. Instead, microchips control many mechanical components.How much of this could have been anticipated?ForecastingEven in the most tranquil of times, projecting trends into the futureis an undertaking filled with challenges and pitfalls. Still, theforecasts made in Trends and Choices were fairly accurate. Andhistory is instructive. The past suggests that most of thetechnologies likely to be deployed widely over the next generation“In 1970, U.S. per capitaincome was 31 percenthigher than that of othermajor industrializedcountries. By 1991, thatdifference had narrowed toonly 10 percent. But withthe dawn of the InternetAge, the gap has started towiden again—to more than22 percent this year.”Michael S. MandelBusiness WeekOct. 4, 1999are ones that either exist today or are under development. It is imperitive that we invest inresearch and development today to support future generations. Even while we might safelyforecast that the pace of change will quicken, history cautions us to avoid assuming thatfuturistic visions will quickly become reality (table 1-1). The past suggests that publicacceptance of new technologies or policies can play a major role in whether they are deployedor implemented. The past also has shown that many changes will be associated with wildcards—developments like wars, recessions, or other phenomena that we know might occur butwhich we cannot forecast with any confidence. Perhaps most importantly, through Trends andChoices, Secretary Coleman demonstrated that well-informed policy decisions can haveimportant effects on the ultimate outcomes for transportation.The TransportationContextDuring the Clinton-Gore Administration,a steady growth in population andstrong economic growth increaseddemand for transportation services. By1998, under the leadership ofTransportation Secretary Rodney Slater,Congress provided nearly $200 billionover six years in surface transportationinvestment, an increase of nearly $50billion over previous funding (seebox 2-1 in chapter 2).In 1975, the U.S. population wasgrowing steadily, with most of theincrease due to migration, and theeconomy was picking up after arecession. The U.S. population stood at215.9 million, the Gross NationalProduct (GNP) was $1,598.4 billion,and GNP per-capita—a commonlyused indicator of economic wellbeing—was$7,400 per person.MillionsConstant dollars 1975, billions4003503002502001501005001975 1980 19855,0004,0003,0002,0001,000U.S. Gross National Product (GNP): 1975-202501975 1980 1985U.S. Population: 1975-20251990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Projected1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Projected1-10
At the time of Trends and Choices, the U.S. population was projected to grow by about 0.5percent compounded annually over the next 15 years to 247 million. Real GNP was projectedto grow at a faster rate — by about 2.3 percent per year — to $2.83 trillion, or about $11,460 perperson (in constant 1975 dollars).By 1990, without any major social upheavals over that period, the population actually grew toa level almost exactly as forecast—to 249 million. But the nation’s economy had been buffetedby another major oil shock in 1979 and had stagnated through the 1970s and 1980s. Withhigh levels of inflation accompanying slow growth, economists came to call this unusualphenomenon “stagflation.” GNP fell short of the projections by 15 percent—$2.41 trillion vs.$2.83 trillion projected in Trends and Choices. Real GNP per-capita fell short of the $10,000forecast by Coleman for 1990.Under the leadership of President Clinton and Vice President Gore, we have witnessed acontinuing rise in population, still largely through immigration, and the longest expansion ofthe economy in our nation’s history. Making up for the pause in growth during the 1980s, theeconomy has grown to an estimated $9.9 trillion in 2000, and per-capita Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) 1 stood at about $36,153 thousand in 1998 or about $11,100 in 1975 dollars.Over the next 25 years, the U.S. population is likely to continue growing at an average annualrate of change of about 0.82 percent, reaching a level of 337 million by 2025. But the agedistribution of the population will continue to change significantly. The median age has risenfrom 28.8 in 1975 to 35.2 in 1999, and it is expected to reach 38.0 by 2025 [USDOC Census1999]. These changing demographics will challenge transportation decisionmakers bothdirectly and indirectly through the makeup of the workforce, consumer preferences forproducts and services, and the numbers of youthful and aging drivers, among other things.Economic projections tend to be more near-term. But the Congressional Budget Office’sestimates suggest growth in production at a substantially faster rate than populationgrowth—about 2.7 percent compounded annually over the next 10 years [CBO 2000].Projected forward, we might expect GDP to reach $29 trillion by 2025. In that event, per-capitaGDP might well be close to 1.5 times today’s level in real terms.One facet of the trends in this period was the growth in workers that resulted from the babyboomers coming of working age from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s and the growth inwomen joining the labor force. In the 1980s, more people were added to the labor force than tototal population. Women’s increasing involvement in the workforce shifted the historicalpattern in which one-third of working-age women worked to one in which one-third ofwomen of that age group did not work. By 1975, female labor force participation had risen to47.3 percent; by 1998, it stood at 59.4 percent. It is to the great credit of the U.S. economy thatthe surge of workers found jobs in a thriving economy. Today, the ever-increasing demand forworkers directly supports President Clinton’s welfarereform plan, and an increasing number of welfarerecipients are transitioning to the job market.Transit ridership grew from 7.4 billionpassenger trips in 1993 to 9 billion in1999 – the highest level since 1964.Population and economic production have alwaysbeen important factors in shaping the nation’s travelpatterns. As population grows, travel generally rises proportionately. But changes in the agedistribution, geographic distribution, and even immigration can affect travel volume andpatterns as well. Economic well-being can brake or accelerate the use of the transportationsystem, while changing the mix of transportation modes or trip purpose. Also,internationally, population growth and globalization of the economy will amplify both tradeand passenger flows. Thus, demographics and economics provide an important part of thecontext for transportation decisionmaking by individuals, government, and in privateindustry.1Since 1992 the United States changed from GNP to GDP as the aggregate measure of the size of the economyto better reflect the domestic production capacity of the country. In 1992, U.S. GNP was $24,490 per capita incurrent 1992 dollars, while GNP was $24,447 per capita in current 1992 dollars.1-11
Page 1: THE CHANGING FACE OF
Page 4 and 5: All material contained in this repo
Page 6 and 7: AcknowledgmentsU.S. Department of T
Page 9 and 10: Table of ContentsChapter 1—Vision
Page 11: Chapter 6—Technology ............
Page 14 and 15: change. Secretary Slater challenged
Page 16 and 17: A Chronology of Vision and Vigilanc
Page 18 and 19: January 1999New Rule Revising USDOT
Page 20 and 21: Table 1-1Forecasts Past and Future1
Page 24 and 25: Today, highway vehicle-miles travel
Page 26 and 27: conventional classroom with the adv
Page 28 and 29: than predicted. The large differenc
Page 30 and 31: In 1975, the nation saw nearly 50,0
Page 32 and 33: FAA and NASA: Working Together on A
Page 34 and 35: traffic and more time with families
Page 36 and 37: operations, maintenance, and mannin
Page 38 and 39: EnergyIn 1975, the United States co
Page 40 and 41: General Motors has manufacturing fa
Page 42 and 43: immigration and drug smuggling by s
Page 44 and 45: This report is organized around six
Page 47: chapter 2Growth, Deregulation,and I
Page 50 and 51: Figure 2-2Economic Growth in the Un
Page 52 and 53: Growth of the Transportation System
Page 54 and 55: Figure 2-6Vehicle-Miles Traveled on
Page 56 and 57: Box 2-1ISTEA/TEA-21The Intermodal S
Page 58 and 59: Box 2-3TelecommutingEmerging techno
Page 60 and 61: Figure 2-11Urban Rail Systems in th
Page 62 and 63: Figure 2-12Transit Ridership: 1975-
Page 64 and 65: the Gulf Coast Corridor, New York
Page 66 and 67: Air Traffic Performance-Based Organ
Page 68 and 69: Figure 2-17U.S. Domestic and Intern
Page 70 and 71: Box 2-6Higher Profits for U.S. Airl
Page 72 and 73:
Figure 2-21Regional/Commuter Passen
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Figure 2-24Fixed-Wing Piston Aircra
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The FAA, in cooperationwith NASA, i
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LaunchesIn 1999, narrow-body aircra
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Millions of short tonsFigure 2-34U.
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Table 2-1U.S. Oceangoing Merchant M
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Figure 2-39Top 25 U.S. Container Po
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Figure 2-41U.S. Total Waterborne Co
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Significant deregulation legislatio
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the curtailed service in rural area
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Figure 2-45Railroad Network Showing
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direct flights to destinations and
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Figure 2-47International and Domest
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asis between shippers and carriers.
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Figure 2-48Total Ton-Miles of Freig
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Japan and Korea are still our major
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This shift from a “push” to a
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We may have to consider workforce-r
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Logistics Management and Distributi
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chapter 3Safety“ There is need fo
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Figure 3-1Total Fatalities in All M
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7. do a better job of data collecti
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The USDOT human factors research in
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Figure 3-4Total Traffic Fatalities:
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Vehicle Rollover and Size Compatibi
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Box 3-2Pedestrian and Bicycle Trips
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Figure 3-9Alcohol-Related Traffic F
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Under TEA-21, some portion of feder
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Child Restraints: Standards for chi
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Demographic Characteristics (age)In
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Figure 3-18Crash Rate per 100,000 L
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Road CharacteristicsSafer Roads: Si
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Together, these systems provide an
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Automation of enforcement efforts
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By the mid-1980s, with deregulation
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Transit SafetyIn 1975, transit, lik
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Figure 3-28Total Train Incidents: 1
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Figure 3-31Rail-Related Fatality Ra
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Figure 3-34Number of Highway-Rail G
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Figure 3-35Fatal Commercial Air Tra
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In the early 1970s, the aviation in
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The program was enhanced by an agre
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Box 3-10 continued2,000 older, larg
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Figure 3-41Recreational Boating Acc
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systems for steering andmachinery m
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In addition to search and rescue ac
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communities with access to the info
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are growing. Smart pigs will be inc
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Regulations are issued by the USDOT
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Keys to the FutureA number of curre
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References23 CFR Part 1313. U.S. De
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U.S. Department of Transportation (
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_____. 2000c. Office of Investigati
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GlobalizationIn the last quarter-ce
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The Phenomenon of GlobalizationDuri
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Figure 4-4Foreign Direct Investment
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Mitsubishi Motor Sales of America,
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Table 4-4“Domestic” Vehicles Bu
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Table 4-5Top Selling Cars and Truck
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The European Union (EU) achieved fu
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Figure 4-6Open Skies Agreements wit
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Figure 4-8Foreign Residents Visitin
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The record growth of world travel h
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Figure 4-11Hull Loss Accident Rates
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integrated air and truck service. A
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traffic, will likely result in the
Page 207 and 208:
Figure 4-18World Shipping Deliverie
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The world merchant fleet in 1975 co
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By 2025, U.S. ports must be prepare
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Figure 4-26Merchandise Exports to C
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through Laredo, Texas, increased 24
Page 217 and 218:
approved for partnerships that woul
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Japan Automobile Manufacturers Asso
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U.S. Department of Transportation (
Page 225 and 226:
chapter 5People, Energy, andthe Env
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Table 5-1Population and Passenger T
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carpools are now really family acti
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Figure 5-5Household Vehicle Ownersh
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Figure 5-8Commuting Flow: 1960-9045
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Box 5-2Access to Transportation for
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Figure 5-12Mode of Transportation b
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Figure 5-16Long-Distance Trip Makin
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Figure 5-18Estimated Percentage of
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transportation’s share of U.S. pe
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Figure 5-21Changes in the Energy In
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loss to the U.S. economy is equal t
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States’ gas hydrate resources alo
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Box 5-4Environmental JusticeCommuni
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Despite dramatic reductions in air
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Figure 5-27Particulate Emissions: 1
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cleaner industrial and electrical g
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Because transportation greenhouse g
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Other fuels show less promise at th
Page 263 and 264:
The advent of increased environment
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eduction programs will be highly su
Page 267 and 268:
A 1980s study estimated that 37 per
Page 269 and 270:
and if we remain vigilant, we could
Page 271 and 272:
Invasive Species: Transportation in
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Box 5-11Clinton-Gore Livable Commun
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Organization for Economic Cooperati
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_____. 2000a. National Air Quality
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chapter 6TechnologyDramatic develop
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U.S. and Allied forces with accurat
Page 285 and 286:
the base station to monitor the ent
Page 287 and 288:
The roots of ITS predate the establ
Page 289 and 290:
Figure 6-36-16Projected The Largest
Page 291 and 292:
Figure 6-4Deployment of Traffic Sig
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payment systems becomeintegrated wi
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Collision Avoidance and Warning Sys
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Computer dispatched paratransit veh
Page 299 and 300:
Box 6-5Types of High-Speed Ground T
Page 301 and 302:
Figure 6-16 6-10Projected Growth in
Page 303 and 304:
Box 6-6 continuedIntelligent Railro
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military, and general aviation) to
Page 307 and 308:
(“independent”) radars and seco
Page 309 and 310:
USDOT, FAAUsing the Enhanced Traffi
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national deployment and as users eq
Page 313 and 314:
Airport complexes (Reagan National,
Page 315 and 316:
The methods used to gather and dist
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commodities, but intelligent contro
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chapter 7National Security“In the
Page 322 and 323:
The nation’s ability to meet the
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Figure 7-1National Defense Reserve
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The Strategic Highway Network (STRA
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Figure 7-4Worldwide International T
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Figure 7-9Terrorist Attacks Against
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These acts of piracy accounted for
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Keys to the FutureTerrorism is a gr
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Box 7-2Aviation Security TrainingPr
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threat in the mid-1970s—the gover
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Threats to Maritime SecurityOur Nat
Page 342 and 343:
Latin America and the Carribean Bas
Page 344 and 345:
______. 1999. America’s Merchant
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Figure 2-41 U.S. Total Waterborne C
Page 348 and 349:
Figure 5-1 Dependence Ratio: 1950-2
Page 351 and 352:
appendix BAcronyms and Initialisms3
Page 353 and 354:
LCDLEOLNGLPGLTLLTVsMaglevMARADMERCO
Page 355 and 356:
appendix CGlossaryAir control facil
Page 357 and 358:
Commuter air carrier: A small certi
Page 359 and 360:
Geostationary orbit: Any orbit at a
Page 361 and 362:
Loran: An electronic navigational s
Page 363 and 364:
Seat-miles: The aircraft-miles flow
Page 365:
Vessel feeder services: Cargo to/fr
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