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TRANSPORTATION - BTS - Bureau of Transportation Statistics

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The FAA, in cooperationwith NASA, is carryingout research anddevelopment to modernizethe National Air Space(NAS) system andimprove its safety, security,efficiency, andenvironmentalcompatibility. Together,they have set a vision andidentified goals to beachieved by 2025 (see box1-4). Daniel S. Goldin,NASA administrator,foresees a future in whichnew technologicaldevelopments will allowour aviation system tomeet growth in air travelby 2025 (see box 6-13).Over the next 25 years,the regional/commuterairline industry isexpected to continueoutpacing the growth <strong>of</strong>large commercial aircarriers. By 2025, theregional airline industryis estimated to enplanemore than 244 millionpassengers annually, ata 4.7 percent averageannual growth rate(figure 2-29). By 2025,the regional/commuterindustry’s share <strong>of</strong> totaldomestic enplanementsis predicted to be wellover 15 percent,compared to11.2 percent in 1999.Figure 2-28U.S. Commercial Air Carriers’ Passenger Jet Aircraft:Projected – 2000-25Aircraft12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: U.S. Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Transportation</strong>, Federal Aviation Administration, Working Paperon Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).Figure 2-29Regional/Commuter Air Carrier Enplanements:Projected – 2000-25Millions3002502001501005002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: U.S. Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Transportation</strong>, Federal Aviation Administration, WorkingPaper on Aerospace Capacity and Demand (Washington, DC: 2000).More than any other factor, the change in the regional aircraft fleet will define the industry’sfuture. While deregulation was the driving force behind the industry’s growth from 1978through the mid-1990s, the popularity and recent rapid introduction <strong>of</strong> regional jets and themarket applications they dictate will shape the industry’s future trends.During the next 25 years, the regional/commuter fleet is expected to increase from 2,237aircraft in 1999 to 3,870 in 2025, an increase <strong>of</strong> 73 percent (figure 2-30). More significantly,regional jets are expected to become the mainstays <strong>of</strong> the fleet midway through this 25-yearperiod. By 2025, regional jets may account for nearly 65 percent <strong>of</strong> the fleet, compared to only2-28

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