HAZAR WORLD - SAYI: 34 - EYLÜL 2015

01
İRAN NÜKLEER ANLAŞMASI / NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN
yol, çatışmaların mezhep kaynaklı yapıdan
çıkarılarak insani bir düzeye ulaştırılmasından
geçiyor.”
Öte yandan Yükleyen, bu mutabakatın
Türk-İran ilişkilerine etkisinin çok karışık
olduğuna dikkat çekiyor: “Sunduğu
dev fırsatların yanı sıra bazı zorlukları da
beraberinde getiriyor. Anlaşmanın ekonomik
faydaları ilk günden beri vurgulanıyor.
İran’a uygulanan ekonomik yaptırımların
kaldırılması İran ekonomisini büyük
ölçüde rahatlatacak; bunun yansımasını
anlaşmayı kutlamak için sokaklara dökülen
İran halkının mutluluğunda görebiliriz.”
İran’ın en önemli ihracat pazarı olan
Türkiye için bu nükleer mutabakat İran
ile yeni bir ekonomik dönemin de başlayacağına
işaret ediyor. Elbette İran’a uygulanan
ticari ambargo döneminde Türkiye ve
İran arasındaki ticaret hiçbir zaman durma
noktasına gelmedi, hatta arttı. Ama bu
04
03
İran’da halk, tarihi
nükleer anlaşmayı
kutlamak için 14
Temmuz 2015’te
Tahran’da sokaklara
döküldü.
Iranians poured onto the
streets of Tehran on July
14, 2015 to celebrate the
historic nuclear deal.
03
and development is to transform the conflicts
in the region from a sectarian character to a
humanitarian one.”
On the other hand, Yükleyen stresses out that
this understanding involves highly complex
implications over Turkish-Iranian relations:
“It offers great opportunities but comes with
challenges as well. The economic benefits
of the agreement are underlined from the
first day. Lifting the economic sanctions on
Iran would relieve the Iranian economy as
reflected in the joy of the Iranians celebrating
the deal on the streets.” Moreover, this nuclear
deal gives the signals of a new era of economic
relations between Iran and Turkey which
indeed is Iran’s primary export market. As a
matter of fact, throughout the trade embargo
imposed on Iran, trade between Turkey and
Iran never come to a halt; on the contrary,
it ramped up but not as much as expected.
HASEN expert Assoc. Prof. Fatih Macit, from
the Center on Energy and Economy, points
out that while Turkey’s exports to Iran were
around 534 million USD by the end of 2003,
this number climbed to 3.9 billion USD by
the end of 2014; yet, he underlines: “Over the
period in question, the level of exports from
Turkey to Iran was indeed never as high as
it could have been; for instance, trade with
Iraq climbed from 829 million USD to 11 billion
USD. The economic distress Iran suffered
due to the embargoes has a lot to do as
to why trade with Iran has shown a limited
upsurge compared to the other countries
within the region.” So, would the foreign trade
figures between Iran and Turkey ascend to
the desired levels from now on? According
to Macit, it is difficult to make an estimation
on the figures; however, it is plausible that -in
the long run- Iran becomes an export market
that could compete with Iraq, and the annual
trade figures exceed 10 billion USD. Turkey’s
exports to Iran mainly involve machinery
and equipment, chemical substances and
products, textiles, metalware industry as well
as rubber and plastic products; and Macit
points out that Turkey could boost the export
of these products as it already has the upper
hand in terms of competitiveness. Moreover,
Macit says: “With the embargoes lifted, as Iran
shakes off the economic distress and becomes
more prosperous, income from Iranian tourists
visiting Turkey will also scale up. Over the
past two years, the number of tourists visiting
Turkey increased by 34% and with around 1.6
million visitors, Iran climbed to the sixth place
on the list of countries from which Turkey
welcomes highest number of tourists.”
30 EYLÜL 2015 SAYI 34 - SEPTEMBER 2015 ISSUE 34