BATTLEFIELD OF THE FUTURE

Chapter 4
Air Theory for the
Twenty-first Century
Col John A.
Warden III, USAF
War in the twenty-first century will be significantly different
for the United States from anything encountered before the
Gulf War . American wars will be increasingly precise ;
imprecision will be too expensive physically and politically to
condone . Our political leaders and our citizenry will insist that
we hit only what we are shooting at and that we shoot the
right thing . Increased use of precision weapons will mean far
less dependence on the multitudes of people or machines
needed in the past to make up for inaccuracy in weapons .
Precision will come to suggest not only that a weapon strike
exactly where it is aimed, but also that the weapons be precise
in destroying or affecting only what is supposed to be affected .
Standoff and indirect-fire precision weapons will become
available to many others, which will make massing of large
numbers in the open suicidal and the safety of deploying
sea-based or land-based aircraft close to a combat arca
problematic .
We might hope that more accurate weapons would drive
potential enemy leaders to be less enamored of achieving their
political objectives with force ; if we are very lucky, perhaps the
world will move in this direction . Of at least equal likelihood,
however, states and other entities will turn to other forms of
warfare---such as attacks on enemy strategic centers of gravity .
These attacks may be via missiles, space, or unconventional
means, but all will recognize that they must achieve their
objective before the United States chooses to involve itself.
This, in turn, will increase the premium on American ability to
move within hours to any point on the globe without reliance
on en route bases .
The advent of nonlethal weapons technology will expand our
options over the full spectrum of war . These new weapons will
103