INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MANAGEMENT V - SGGW
INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MANAGEMENT V - SGGW
INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MANAGEMENT V - SGGW
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80<br />
y2 – state budget expenditure in total (from the beginning of the year to the<br />
end of the period) [million PLN],<br />
y3 – budget deficit [million PLN].<br />
Figure 2. Characteristics of polish incomes, expenditures and deficit in years 1992-2009.<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
years<br />
incomes expenditures deficit<br />
Source:Own preparation.<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
As a result of identification, a parametric model in the form of a th matrix is obtained,<br />
i.e. for the arx model i.a. parameters: na, nb, nc and A(q), B1(q), B2(q), for<br />
state budget income in total, namely (fig. 3):<br />
A ( q)<br />
−1<br />
−2<br />
−3<br />
−4<br />
= 1−<br />
0.<br />
748⋅<br />
q − 0.<br />
2137 ⋅ q + 0.<br />
61⋅<br />
q − 0.<br />
3749⋅<br />
q<br />
−<br />
−2<br />
−3<br />
B 1(<br />
q)<br />
= −0.<br />
03261⋅<br />
q − 0.<br />
5528⋅<br />
q − 0.<br />
2843⋅<br />
q + 0.<br />
1346⋅<br />
q<br />
B<br />
2(<br />
q)<br />
1 −4<br />
−1<br />
−2<br />
−3<br />
−4<br />
= 0.<br />
2141⋅<br />
q − 0.<br />
1193⋅<br />
q + 0.<br />
1972⋅<br />
q + 0.<br />
3469⋅<br />
q<br />
( 3)