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INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MANAGEMENT V - SGGW

INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MANAGEMENT V - SGGW

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80<br />

y2 – state budget expenditure in total (from the beginning of the year to the<br />

end of the period) [million PLN],<br />

y3 – budget deficit [million PLN].<br />

Figure 2. Characteristics of polish incomes, expenditures and deficit in years 1992-2009.<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

1992<br />

1993<br />

1994<br />

1995<br />

1996<br />

1997<br />

1998<br />

1999<br />

2000<br />

2001<br />

years<br />

incomes expenditures deficit<br />

Source:Own preparation.<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

As a result of identification, a parametric model in the form of a th matrix is obtained,<br />

i.e. for the arx model i.a. parameters: na, nb, nc and A(q), B1(q), B2(q), for<br />

state budget income in total, namely (fig. 3):<br />

A ( q)<br />

−1<br />

−2<br />

−3<br />

−4<br />

= 1−<br />

0.<br />

748⋅<br />

q − 0.<br />

2137 ⋅ q + 0.<br />

61⋅<br />

q − 0.<br />

3749⋅<br />

q<br />

−<br />

−2<br />

−3<br />

B 1(<br />

q)<br />

= −0.<br />

03261⋅<br />

q − 0.<br />

5528⋅<br />

q − 0.<br />

2843⋅<br />

q + 0.<br />

1346⋅<br />

q<br />

B<br />

2(<br />

q)<br />

1 −4<br />

−1<br />

−2<br />

−3<br />

−4<br />

= 0.<br />

2141⋅<br />

q − 0.<br />

1193⋅<br />

q + 0.<br />

1972⋅<br />

q + 0.<br />

3469⋅<br />

q<br />

( 3)

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